* Biden meets with NATO allies, which strengthen troops in eastern Europe
* Poland becomes America’s ‘indispensable’ ally as Ukraine war rages
* EU signs deal with US for more shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe
* Will Putin lash out dangerously if Russia becomes bogged down in Ukraine?
* Biden says to expect food shortages due to Ukraine war
* German leading indicator tumbles in March amid Ukraine war blowback
* Considering how inflation could ease without a recession
* Durable goods orders in US fell in February–first monthly slide in 5 months
* US business activity accelerated in March via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims fell last week to lowest level since 1969:

The relatively high return correlations across markets in recent years are giving way as volatility surges in 2022. As a result, assumptions about relationships between markets, and the degree of diversification benefits, may be in need of updating.

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* Biden in Brussels for meetings with NATO, G-7 and European Union
* N. Korea test fires intercontinental ballistic missile, Japan reports
* Eurozone business activity slowed in March via PMI survey data
* Fed’s goal of soft landing for economy appears to face low odds
* Oil prices rise after Russia reports extended pipeline outage
* Putin says ‘unfriendly’ countries must pay for gas in rubles
* Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks end of globalization, writes BlackRock’s Fink
* New US home sales fell for a second month in February
* US gasoline prices remain elevated, close to previous high in 2008:

Morningstar recently observed that accurately assessing the directional strength or weakness of the US labor market requires a broad review of factors. Correctly advising in December that the weak print for the then-current payrolls report (November) was “likely just a blip given strength,” based on a more expansive read of economic data. The analysis inspires a deeper look into macro factors in search of perspective to the question: What’s relevant (or not) for evaluating labor market activity?

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* US and allies to unveil new Russia sanctions as Biden visits Europe this week
* Is it time for NATO to take a more direct response to Russia’s war on Ukraine?
* Will the war in Ukraine disrupt Europe’s shift to clean energy?
* Global bond market posts biggest drawdown on record (since 1990)
* US gasoline prices rise at fastest pace on record
* UK inflation reaches new multi-decade high, driven by energy prices
* Fed funds futures predicts 60%-plus probability of 1/2 point rate hike in May
* US 10yr Treasury yield continues rising, reaching highest since May 2019:

The easy answer is almost certainly “yes.” The more challenging question: Does a recession call rise to the level of a high-confidence forecast? No, not yet. For now, and probably for the immediate future, a high level of uncertainty will continue to keep the crowd guessing.

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* European Union support is rising for banning Russian oil
* Intelligence indicates growing Russian cyber threat to US, Biden says
* Fed will raise rates more aggressively if needed, says Fed’s Powell
* Powell’s comments on tackling inflation are wake-up call for Wall Street
* Fed’s Powell says short-Term yield curve is better recession risk predictor
* US housing market set for ‘substantial downshift in activity,’ economist predicts
* US economic growth remained solid in February, via Chicago Fed index:

Most markets around the world staged a strong rebound last week, led by stocks in foreign developed markets ex-US, as of Friday’s close (Mar.18). The main exceptions: US bonds and commodities, which posted the only setbacks for the major asset classes last week, based on a set of ETFs.

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* Russia’s war on Ukraine forces 10 million-plus people to abandon their homes
* Ukraine rejects Russia’s demand to surrender city of Mariupol
* Biden to visit Poland on Europe trip this week
* Strained US-Saudi relations complicate effort to raise oil output
* US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas admitted to a hospital
* European Union considers banning Russia oil imports
* Germany reports long-term agreement with Qatar for natural gas supply
* US existing home sales fell more than expected in February
* 10-year Treasury pulled back on Friday after reaching 2.20%:

● The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All
Mary Childs
Review via The Wall Street Journal
“The Bond King” titillates with its subtitle: “How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All.” But Wall Street has a slightly different recollection of Bill Gross, co-founder, in 1971, of Pimco, the giant California money management firm. Closer to the plain truth might be: “How One Man Reimagined a Market, Built a Business, Got Rich, and Stayed Rich.” Mr. Gross, 77, was the chief investment brain, public voice and institutional face of Pimco until his exasperated partners gave him the gate in 2014.

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