The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Data published to date, however, still indicates that the economy will continue to expand for the near term.

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* New round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin
* Joe Biden’s $5.8 trillion budget for next year would trim federal deficits
* US job openings still exceed job takers, private data show for March
* Global supply chain risk is rising again
* Possible strike by West Coast dockworkers looms for supply-chain risk
* China’s planned lockdown of Shanghai raises concerns about energy demand
* German consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since Feb 2021
* Dallas Fed Mfg Index continues to show moderate growth for March
* US goods trade deficit narrows in Feb, but remains near record
* US 2-year Treasury yield continues rising, reaching new three-year high: