We already know that the recent inflation surge is still accelerating, and that it’s likely to heat up further in the months ahead as effects from the Ukraine war begin to factor into the data. One question that comes up is whether some or most of this pricing pressure is noise or signal? For some perspective, let’s estimate the inflation “cycle,” based on a simple estimate that attempts to capture the longer-term ebb and flow of inflation.

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* Ukraine-Russia talks fail as war grinds on
* Will Russia avoid first foreign-currency bond default since 1917 revolution?
* Ukraine war disrupts global supply of key parts and raw materials
* Three European leaders to visit Ukraine’s capital in show of support
* China warns of retaliation if hit with western sanctions linked to Russia
* New “stealth” variant of coronavirus spreading around the world
* Covid-19 cases more than double in one day in China as outbreak accelerates
* China reports better-than-expected growth in retail sales and industrial output
* China stocks falls sharply for second day as new covid lockdowns are announced
* US 10yr Treasury yield rises to 2.14%, near a three-year high: