* Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine on “peacekeeping” mission
* US and European governments set to roll out new sanctions on Russia
* Will Putin’s troops stop in eastern Ukraine or is this start of full invasion?
* Oil prices rise amid higher geopolitical tension
* Bearish bets on stocks are surging
* Spike in geopolitical risk takes a bite out of cryptocurrencies
* What’s at stake for the global economy as conflict draws closer in Ukraine?
* Fed Governor Bowman suggests 1/2-point hike possible if inflation is hot
* Gold trades near 9-month high as Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine:

In a mixed week for performances of the major asset classes, inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US posted the strongest gain, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Feb. 18).

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* Biden agrees ‘in principle’ to meet Putin to discuss Ukraine
* Kremlin says: ‘no concrete plans’ for a Biden-Putin summit
* Iran reports significant progress toward reviving 2015 nuclear deal
* US average daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue steady decline
* Drop in federal relief spending could help curb US inflation
* The recent surge in used car prices starts to reverse in early February
* Eurozone growth picks up in Feb as pricing pressure accelerated
* UK private sector growth accelerates to its strongest since June 2021
* US Macro-Markets Risk Index turns negative, signaling softer growth:

● Risk Thinking… In an Uncertain World
Ron S. Dembo
Summary via publisher (Archway Publishing)
Our age of radical uncertainty requires a new way of assessing risk that pays more attention to the extreme outliers that too often become tomorrow’s reality. Today’s models cannot cope with the frightening new unpredictable risks we face every day that frequently seem to come out of left field – the effects of climate change, a killer pandemic, a cascading wildfire, a financial crisis triggered by faceless algorithms, or a devastating cyber-attack that shuts down the electric power grid. This accessible book advocates a new, more realistic approach to analyzing risk and strategizing—one that is less reliant on a single solution or unnuanced forecast. They help us look for the almost unimaginable situations that we cannot see.

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Do you know where your strategy performance is coming from?

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* Wide-scale Russian military activity persists near Ukraine’s borders
* Pro-Russia rebels accuse Ukraine of new attacks
* Senate passed spending bill to avoid a government shutdown
* Will BA.2 subvariant of Omicron bring the next wave of trouble?
* Wal-Mart reports strong Q4 results despite multiple challenges
* Average US 30-year mortgage rate rises to nearly 4%–highest since 2019
* China’s offshore yuan trades at strongest level in four years
* US jobless claims rose last week, surprising forecasters
* Philly Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect slowing growth through February
* US housing starts fell in January–first decline in four months:

After flirting with an upside breakout for months, the US 10-year Treasury yield moved decisively to the upside in recent weeks and broke through a level that appeared to be a ceiling for much of the previous year.

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* US says Russia’s claims of of troop withdrawal from Ukraine border are “false”
* Cease-fire violations alleged by Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists
* Fed minutes indicate central bank set to move ahead on rate hikes
* US homebuilder sentiment eased again in February but remains at elevated level
* Strong increase in US import prices adds to inflation pressure in January
* US industrial output rose in January, well above expectations
* US retail sales surged in January, rebounding sharply after weak December:

After a run of rising interest rates in recent months, the usual suspects in the US bond market have taken a hit this year. With one exception, all the major slices of fixed income are posting losses in 2022, based on a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Jan. 15).

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* Russia says it’s withdrawing some troops from Ukrainian border, but…
* NATO counters that Russia is still increasing military buildup near Ukraine
* Investors betting on fastest pace of rate hikes since 2010 in developed markets
* China’s inflation slowed in January, opening door for more policy easing
* UK inflation remained at 30-year high in January
* Will Russia-Ukraine crisis drive US inflation even higher?
* Oil prices could spike further amid rising demand and supply constraints
* Surging lumber prices add nearly $19,000 to cost of building a new home
* US 10-year Treasury yield ticks up to 2.05%, highest level in 2-1/2 years: