Monthly Archives: July 2019

Macro Briefing: 8 July 2019

Strong US jobs growth report undermines case for rate cut: CNBC
Trump rolls out more criticisms of Federal Reserve: Bloomberg
Greece elects conservative gov’t, pledging tax cuts, investment: Reuters
Turkish lira weakens after central bank chief is fired: CNBC
Deutsche Bank announces huge layoffs and restructuring plans: WSJ
German industrial output rebounded but yoy change sinks deeper into red
US payrolls rebounded sharply in June: CNBC
1yr trend for US industrial/commercial loans slipped to 6mo low in May:

Book Bits | 6 July 2019

American Bonds: How Credit Markets Shaped a Nation
By Sarah L. Quinn
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Federal housing finance policy and mortgage-backed securities have gained widespread attention in recent years because of the 2008 financial crisis, but issues of government credit have been part of American life since the nation’s founding. From the 1780s, when a watershed national land credit policy was established, to the postwar foundations of our current housing finance system, American Bonds examines the evolution of securitization and federal credit programs. Sarah Quinn shows that since the Westward expansion, the U.S. government has used financial markets to manage America’s complex social divides, and politicians and officials across the political spectrum have turned to land sales, home ownership, and credit to provide economic opportunity without the appearance of market intervention or direct wealth redistribution.
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Macro Briefing: 5 July 2019

Does Trump’s Fed pick raise political risk for the central bank? NY Times
Economists expect a rebound in US job growth for June: Reuters
German factory orders plunged in May: Bloomberg
German and French 10yr bond yields fall to record lows: CNBC
US jobless claims remain close to half-century low: MW
Trade deficit for US surged in May to five-month high: Reuters
US job cuts rose to 10yr high in first half of 2019: CG&C
ISM Non-Mfg Index eased in June but still reflects moderate growth: ISM
PMI survey data points to ‘subdued growth’ for US services sector: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued to decline in May: Reuters
Slower growth trend expected for US private payrolls in today’s June update:

Happy Independence Day!

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…

And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.

What Killed (Wounded?) The Value Factor?

The value factor may not be dead, but it’s certainly on life support. The question is whether this popular but currently challenged risk premium for equity investors will revive any time soon, if ever? No one knows, at least no one without a reliable crystal ball. But perhaps we can find some clues on what’s coming by searching for likely smoking guns that are behind value’s demise (or current state of suspended animation, if you prefer).

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Macro Briefing: 3 July 2019

Did China come out on top after Trump-Xi G20 meeting? CNBC
Trump picks two nominees for Federal Reserve board: Bloomberg
IMF’s Christine Lagarde to lead European Central Bank: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI: ‘solid growth’ for June: IHS Markit
China’s economy slowed in June, weakest since last Oct: IHS Markit
1yr trend for US private payrolls projected to hold at +1.9%:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2019

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up in June, rising to an annualized 4.8%. Today’s revision reflects a modest gain over last month’s 4.5% projection. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The performance estimate for the benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.
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Macro Briefing: 2 July 2019

US considers imposing new trade tariffs on Europe: WSJ
China condemns violent Hong Kong protests: Reuters
Slowdown in worldwide growth has been ‘deeper than expected’: BIS
Roubini, aka Dr Doom, sees global recession by 2020: Bloomberg
OPEC extends oil production cuts by 9 months: CNBC
US investment in private construction fell to 2-year low in May: CNBC
Global mfg sector contracts for second month in June: IHS Markit
PMI survey data point to sluggish growth in US mfg sector: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index reflects slowest growth in over two years in June: MW