This year’s red-hot bond-market rally looks set for a new burst of bullish support if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates today, which is widely expected.
Monthly Archives: July 2019
Macro Briefing | 31 July 2019
Democrats clash in debate on health care: NY Times
Fed expected to cut interest rates today–first time since 2008: WSJ
US-China trade talks end in failure… again: Reuters
N. Korea fires missiles for a second time in a week: BBC
Political pressure builds as Congress considers $2.7 trillion budget deal: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in July to highest level this year: CNBC
Case-Shiller index shows US home-price growth continued to slow in May: HW
US consumer spending and income rose moderately in June: Reuters
US private employment annual trend on track to slip to +1.7% in today’s ADP data:
Low Inflation Will Likely Convince The Fed To Cut Rates
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to trim interest rates tomorrow, and the prospect of low and possibly lower inflation in the months ahead is a key factor.
Macro Briefing | 30 July 2019
Capital One, a major credit card issuer, suffers massive data breach: WSJ
Pound slides as Boris Johnson raises no-deal Brexit odds: Reuters
US-China trade talks begin with little fanfare and low expectations: SCMP
Japan’s industrial output fell more than expected in June: Bloomberg
Eurozone economic sentiment continued to slide in July: Reuters
German consumer confidence down for third month: Reuters
Texas mfg posted a slightly stronger gain in July: Dallas Fed
1yr growth for today’s June report on US consumer spending is expected to ease:
US Stocks Rebounded Last Week, Topping Global Market Returns
Equities in the US regained their mojo last week, posting the strongest gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
Macro Briefing | 29 July 2019
US-China trade talks set to resume this week: WSJ
Fed expected to cut interest rates this week: Reuters
Former Fed Chair Yellen recommends a rate cut: CNBC
China warns that violent protests in Hong Kong won’t be tolerated: Bloomberg
China’s economy continued to slow in July: Bloomberg
Dan Coats, US director of nat’l intelligence, announces resignation: The Hill
A short list of indicators to watch for calling the next recession: NY Times
Real and nominal 1-year GDP growth for US eased to 2-year lows in Q2:
Book Bits | 27 July 2019
● Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos
Interview with author (via Kitco News)
By James Rickards
The economy is vulnerable to economic “chaos” due to several monetary and policy mistakes made since the 2008 recession, said best-selling author Jim Rickards.
His new book “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation In The Coming Chaos” details how the last economic crisis never really ended.
“Technically, the recession was over in June 2009 and the U.S. economy has been expanding ever since. We’re coming up on 10 years of expansion, it’s one of the longest expansions in U.S. history and it’s one of the longest bull markets in stocks in U.S. history, so that’s true. But, it’s also been the weakest expansion in U.S. history. For 10 years average growth has been about 2.2%,” Rickards told Kitco News.
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Consumer Spending Surged In Q2, But Economic Growth Still Eased
The economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Although that marks a hefty slowdown from Q1’s 3.1% increase, the Q2 advance is a bit stronger than expected.
It’s (Still) Tough To Beat Mr. Market
If you keep banging your head against the wall, presumably a lesson or two will creep into your cracked skull. But if those lessons are related to investing, the crowd suffers from a recurring and long-running bout of attention deficit disorder.
Macro Briefing | 26 July 2019
Slower US growth expected in today’s Q2 GDP report: Reuters
ECB signals plans for more stimulus to combat weakening economy: WSJ
Record temps in Europe as heatwave bakes the Continent: CBS
Automakers reject Trump admin and strike emissions deal with Calif: NY Times
US durable goods orders rebounded in June after two monthly declines: WSJ
Trade deficit for US narrowed in June: MW
Jobless claims in US fell to 3-month low last week, signaling healthy labor mkt: MW