US plans to roll out new sanctions on Iran: Bloomberg
Trump: deportations to start in 2 weeks without immigration reform: Politico
How this week’s Trump-Xi meeting could influence markets: MW
Bonds, stocks and currencies moving in sync more often: WSJ
German business sentiment continues to deteriorate in June: Reuters
Turkey’s Erdogan suffers political setback in Istanbul election: Reuters
If value investing’s dead, here’s why: CNBC
PMI survey data shows US economic output virtually flat in June: IHS Markit
US existing home sales rebounded in May: MW

● Not Working: Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone?
By David G. Blanchflower
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Don’t trust low unemployment numbers as proof that the labor market is doing fine—it isn’t. Not Working is about those who can’t find full-time work at a decent wage—the underemployed—and how their plight is contributing to widespread despair, a worsening drug epidemic, and the unchecked rise of right-wing populism. In this revelatory and outspoken book, David Blanchflower draws on his acclaimed work in the economics of labor and well-being to explain why today’s postrecession economy is vastly different from what came before. He calls out our leaders and policymakers for failing to see the Great Recession coming, and for their continued failure to address one of the most unacknowledged social catastrophes of our time. Blanchflower shows how many workers are underemployed or have simply given up trying to find a well-paying job, how wage growth has not returned to prerecession levels despite rosy employment indicators, and how general prosperity has not returned since the crash of 2008.
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After stumbling in May, technology stocks have rebounded sharply in June, regaining this year’s crown for top-performing US equity sector, based on a set of exchange traded funds.

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Trump approved strike on Iran, then cancels attack: CNBC
Hong Kong protests resume over controversial extradition bill: CNN
Eurozone growth remains weak but output picks up (slightly) in June: IHS Markit
Japanese mfg conditions weaken in June; new orders fall sharply: IHS Markit
US stock market (S&P 500) closes at record high after Fed’s rate-cut hints: WSJ
Philly Fed Mfg Index falls sharply in June, signals near-neutral reading: MW
US jobless claims fell last week, pointing to strong labor market: CB
Gold surges to six-year high:

A US official confirmed that a surface-to-air missile shot down an American drone over the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Persian Gulf, a critical shipping lane for oil exports from the Middle East. Iran also said that it shot down a drone as a warning to the US. The news threatens to further escalate rising tension between the US and Iran. Here’s a summary of key issues on this still-evolving story:

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Iran shoots down US drone over the Strait of Hormuz: CNN
China’s Xi meets N. Korea’s Kim in Pyongyang: NY Times
US considering new restrictions on issuing H-1B visas to foreigners: Reuters
Fed leaves rates unchanged, hints at possible cuts later in year: Reuters
Former Fed governor warns: removing Powell could bring market ‘turmoil’: CNBC
US housing investments rise to record high: WSJ
Fed leaves 2019 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.1%: Federal Reserve
10-year Treasury yield falls below 2.0%, lowest since November 2016: Bloomberg

US economic growth has slowed recently and several key economic indicators are painting a mixed profile about the near-term outlook. The modestly wobbly numbers of late have convinced some analysts to warn that a recession is near. Perhaps, but the data overall still align with a moderate expansion and an econometric projection of the macro trend (via a broad set of indicators listed below) continues to anticipate a low probability of a downturn through July.
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Trump says Europe is unfairly boosting its economy: NY Times
Asian markets rise on Wed in anticipation of US-China trade deal: MW
Blackstone’s Schwarzman: Trump-Xi meeting unlikely to lead to trade deal: CNBC
Fed considers the case for a rate cut for today’s policy announcement: WSJ
The Fed is becoming politicized: Bloomberg
Firms may leave Hong Kong due to political uncertainty: CNBC
US housing starts fell 4.7% in May for year-over-year comparison:

Recession chatter is heating up again, largely for obvious reasons: several key economic indicators are flashing warning signs. The wobbly numbers have convinced some analysts that economic contraction in the near term is fate. We’ve been here before in recent years, only to discover that the recession warnings were wrong. Is it different this time? Will the economy finally succumb? No one really knows, which leaves us with only one question: How can we make an informed, probability-based estimate of recession risk?

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US plans to send more troops to Middle East: Reuters
Trump: ‘millions of illegal aliens’ to be removed starting next week: CBS
China’s US Treasury holdings fell to 2-year low in April: Bloomberg
Hong Kong leader apologizes but refuses to step down: Reuters
German economic expectations plunge in June: FT
Euro falls sharply after ECB chief lays groundwork for more stimulus: CNBC
Facebook leads consortium to launch new digital currency: CNBC
Is prolonging the US economic expansion counterproductive? MW
NY Fed Mfg Index in June falls to lowest level since late-2016: MW
US home builder sentiment eased in June but still points to growth: CNBC