Recession chatter is heating up again, largely for obvious reasons: several key economic indicators are flashing warning signs. The wobbly numbers have convinced some analysts that economic contraction in the near term is fate. We’ve been here before in recent years, only to discover that the recession warnings were wrong. Is it different this time? Will the economy finally succumb? No one really knows, which leaves us with only one question: How can we make an informed, probability-based estimate of recession risk?

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US plans to send more troops to Middle East: Reuters
Trump: ‘millions of illegal aliens’ to be removed starting next week: CBS
China’s US Treasury holdings fell to 2-year low in April: Bloomberg
Hong Kong leader apologizes but refuses to step down: Reuters
German economic expectations plunge in June: FT
Euro falls sharply after ECB chief lays groundwork for more stimulus: CNBC
Facebook leads consortium to launch new digital currency: CNBC
Is prolonging the US economic expansion counterproductive? MW
NY Fed Mfg Index in June falls to lowest level since late-2016: MW
US home builder sentiment eased in June but still points to growth: CNBC