The US recession warnings are flying every which way lately in the wake of an inverted yield curve. The spread on the 10-year less 3-month yields in particular has unleashed a wave of predictions that a new downturn is near. But some analysts point out that another widely followed spread — 10-year less 2-year yields – is still positive, albeit modestly so. What’s an informed investor to do? Wait for both spreads to confirm a recession forecast before betting the farm on contraction.
Daily Archives: June 5, 2019
Macro Briefing: 5 June 2019
Senate Republicans push back on Trump’s plans for tariffs on Mexico: NY Times
Mexican officials to meet with VP Pence today for tariffs talk: Reuters
Trump: there’s ‘always a chance’ of military action against Iran: CNBC
Fed’s Powell is open to rate cuts if warranted: WSJ
World Bank cuts forecast for global growth in 2019: WB
US auto sales rebounded in May: Yahoo Finance
US factory orders’ 1yr trend was subdued in April at +1.0%:
