Monthly Archives: May 2019

Macro Briefing: 6 May 2019

New trade threats from Trump weigh on markets: WSJ
China says it’s still preparing for US trade talks: CNBC
US warships sail in disputed South China Sea: Reuters
US deploying carrier, bombers to Middle East to deter Iran: CNN
Trump’s re-election prospects strengthened by strong US economy: The Hill
Nearly all asset classes are posting gains so far in 2019: WSJ
ISM Non-Mfg Index: growth rate decelerated to 2yr low in April: MW
Growth in US services sector eased to slowest pace since March 2017: IHS Markit
US trade deficit widened slightly in March: MW
US job growth accelerated as jobless rate fell to 50yr low: Reuters

Book Bits | 4 May 2019

Living Well at Others’ Expense: The Hidden Costs of Western Prosperity
By Stephan Lessenich
Review via The Irish Times
Imagine a fictional society, Dogland, which consists solely of dogs kept as pets in US homes. If the average maintenance cost of these pets is taken as their pay, the residents of Dogland would rank above 40% of the world’s population in terms of income.
In Living Well at Others’ Expense, Stephan Lessenich uses Dogland to illustrate not only the stark inequalities in today’s world, but also the fact that many of us in the rich developed world are complicit in perpetuating this injustice.
Continue reading

US Hiring Accelerated In April

US companies expanded payrolls at a sharply stronger pace in April, the Labor Department reports. Following a softer round of growth in March, nonfarm payrolls rose 236,000 last month—well up from the previous 179,000 gain. The pickup in growth pushed the one-year trend for private payrolls up to a robust 2.0% pace, a three-month high.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 3 May 2019

Speaker Pelosi: Attorney General Barr ‘lied to Congress’: CNBC
OPEC collapase may be near, says Iran’s oil minister: Bloomberg
Moore withdraws from consideration to join Fed board: WSJ
Eurozone inflation edged up more than expected in April: Bloomberg
UK Services PMI ticks back to growth in April, just barely: Reuters
Cyclone Fani makes landfall in India: CNN
US worker productivity rebounded sharply in Q1: Bloomberg
Factory orders in US post largest increase since last August: Reuters
Job cuts in US fell 34% in April vs previous month: CG&C
US jobless claims held steady at low level last week but 1yr trend continued to rise:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 May 2019

The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in April, reaching an expected annualized 4.8% return. The estimate reflects a slightly higher forecast compared with the 4.7% projection in last month’s update. Today’s revision for GMI — an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) — represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long term.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 2 May 2019

Barr defies Congress with decision to skip 2nd day of testimony: Reuters
Iranian oil sanctions may put US and Saudi Arabia on collision course: WSJ
Fed leaves rates unchanged, expects no hikes this year: CBS
Eurozone Mfg PMI: sector contracts for third month in April: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index fell to 2-year low in April, signaling slow growth: IBD
US Mfg PMI ticked higher in April: IHS Markit
Consutruction spending in US unexpectedly fell in March: Reuters
US private-sector payrolls rebounded sharply in April: ADP

Macro Briefing: 1 May 2019

Venezuela’s Maduro holds on to power with grip on military: BBG
Trump threatens US embargo on Cuba for supporting Venezuela: Reuters
GOP senators raise doubts about Moore’s possible nomination to Fed: WSJ
Year-over-year trend of US pending home sales continued to fall in March: CNBC
Home-price growth rate in US continued to slow in Feb: HW
US Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in Q1, reflecting moderate wage gain: BBG
Initial GDPNow estimate of US GDP growth for Q2 is a weak +1.3%: Atlanta Fed
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in April: MW