N. Korea says it tested ‘a powerful warhead’: CNBC
What to look for in today’s release of Mueller report: Bloomberg
Herman Cain says he won’t withdraw from consideration for Fed board: WSJ
US automakers wonder if Trump will impose import tariffs on car parts: Reuters
Eurozone growth remains sluggish in April, close to stall speed: IHS Markit
UK shoppers ignored Brexit risk and spent heavily in March: Reuters
US trade deficit in Feb narrowed to smallest gap in 8 months: MW
Two-thirds of CFOs expect US recession by late-2020: MW
Wall St Journal April survey: economists expect US GDP growth to slow in Q1: WSJ
GDPNow Q1 growth estimate revised up to +2.4% — above Q4’s pace: Atlanta Fed

Equity markets in China continue to lead this year’s across-the-board gains around the world, based on a set of exchange traded funds that represent the major regions and markets. Feeding into the bullish trend is encouraging economic reports for China published today, along with fresh optimism that a trade deal for the US and China may be near.
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US attorney gen’l OKs rule for indefinite detention for asylum seekers: Reuters
Trump vetoes bill calling for end to US role in Saudi-led Yemen war: Bloomberg
China’s economy stabilized in first quarter: NY Times
German gov’t cuts economic forecast for 2nd time in 3 months: Reuters
Activity detected at N. Korea’s main nuclear site: SCMP
Turkey’s lira fell to 6mo low as ruling party calls for new elections: CNBC
US home builder confidence ticked up in April to 6-month high: MW
US industrial output fell in March; 1-year growth trend continued to ease:

It happens whenever there’s a sharp rise in gasoline or oil prices. Pundits focus on the increases and cry foul if broad inflation gauges don’t confirm the price hikes at the pump. But it’s short-sighted to assume that a spike in energy prices will automatically lead to higher inflation overall.
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House Democrats subpoena Deutsche Bank in probe of Trump finances: Politico
Trump and Pompeo downplay N. Korea’s deadline re: nuclear talks: Reuters
Bernie Sanders releases a decade of tax returns: The Hill
Will US foreign policy re: Iran and Venezuela roil the oil market? NY Times
NY Fed Mfg Index rose in April, but outlook data fell to 3yr low: Bloomberg
US industrial production’s 1yr growth trend is on track to ease again in March:

A broad measure of commodities rose last week, posting the strongest increase for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds. The rally marks the second straight week with commodities leading markets higher.
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Mueller report set for public release this week: Bloomberg
EU set to start delayed trade talks with US: Reuters
Signs of a US-China trade deal help lift Asian stocks: MW
Outlook improves for China’s economy: CNBC
Former central bankers: Trump’s attacks threaten Fed’s independence: WSJ
A thicket of politics and economics await Fed Chairman Powell: NY Times
Will the arrival of spring provide a boost to US economic growth? MW
Rising fuel prices drive US import prices higher for third month in March: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index eased in April; first slide in 3 months: Bloomberg

● Big Business:
A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero
By Tyler Cowen
Review via Reason
Could it be that you are getting a better deal from big technology companies than you realize? George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen thinks so, and he has penned a new book to convince you that you should love big businesses as much as he does.
It’s called Big Business: A Love Letter to An American Anti-Hero, and it indeed sings the praises of today’s bêtes noires. In true Cowenesque fashion, the book starts out with a markedly contrarian premise that by the last page seems so evident that you wonder why it first felt outlandish at all. Even the most dogged big business critic may feel just a little tenderer towards today’s titans by the end (whether they want to admit it or not).
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Strategic Rebalancing
Nicolas Granger (Man AHL), et al.
April 3, 2019
A mechanical rebalancing strategy, such as a monthly or quarterly reallocation towards fixed portfolio weights, is an active strategy. Winning asset classes are sold and losers are bought. During crises, when markets are often trending, this can lead to substantially larger drawdowns than a buy-and-hold strategy. Our paper shows that the negative convexity induced by rebalancing can be substantially mitigated, taking the popular 60-40 stock-bond portfolio as our use case. One alternative is an allocation to a trend-following strategy. The positive convexity of this overlay tends to counter the impact on drawdowns of the mechanical rebalancing strategy. The second alternative we call strategic rebalancing, which uses smart rebalancing timing based on trend-following signals – without a direct allocation to a trend-following strategy. For example, if the trend-following model suggests that stock markets are in a negative trend, rebalancing is delayed.
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Fed has become too dovish, says Allianz’s chief economic advisor: CNBC
Herman Cain’s prospects for joining Fed lose key GOP support: Fox
Eurozone industrial output falls less than forecast in February: Reuters
China’s exports rebounded in March as imports fell more than expected: Reuters
Credit growth revives in China, suggesting firmer economic growth: Bloomberg
Investors consider the rising risk of an earnings recession: MW
US wholesale prices rose sharply in March, driven by higher gasoline prices: MW
US jobless claims fell below 200,000 last week for first time since 1969: CNBC