US gov’t shutdown risk rises as budget talks break down: Reuters
IMF’s new chief economist supports Fed’s pause on rate hikes: FT
Trump’s NAFTA replacement faces challenges in Congress: Axios
US dollar near 6-week high amid worries over global growth: CNBC
Krugman: global recession risk is rising: CNBC
Japan’s Q4 GDP expected to post modest growth: MNI
Delayed US GDP report for Q4 rescheduled for Feb 28: BEA
US warships again challenge China’s claims in South China Sea: CNN
Pompeo heads to Central Europe to counter Russia and China’s sway: Politico
UK economy contracted in Dec under Brexit strain: Bloomberg

Can Sustainable Investment Yield Better Financial Returns:
A Comparative Study of ESG Indices and MSCI Indices
Mansi Jain (Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University), et al.
2 February 2019
‘Sustainable investment’ includes a variety of asset classes selected while caring for the causes of environmental, social, and governance (ESG). It is an investment strategy that seeks to combine social and/or environmental benefits with financial returns, thus linking investor’s social, ethical, ecological and economic concerns… The purpose of this paper is to study whether the sustainable investment alternatives offer better financial returns than the conventional indices from both developed and emerging markets… The results indicate that there is no significant difference in the performance between sustainable indices and the traditional conventional indices….
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Trump expected to ban Chinese telecom equipment in US next week: Politico
Trump won’t meet China’s Xi before March 1 tariff deadline: Bloomberg
Trump probably can’t force another gov’t shutdown: Politico
Softer growth expected for Europe and UK: MarketWatch
Italy’s industrial output fell for fourth straight month in December: Bloomberg
Supreme Court blocks abortion law in narrow ruling: CNN
Proposed BB&T-Sun Trust merger is biggest US bank deal in a decade: Reuters
Amazon’s Bezos accuses American Media of blackmail: WSJ
US consumer credit for Dec rose above $4 trillion for first time: MW
US jobless claims pulled back last week after spiking: Reuters

Supported by the Federal Reserve’s recent pause on raising interest rates, corporate bonds are leading the US fixed-income sector higher in 2019. Junk bonds and long-term corporates are especially hot for the year-to-results through yesterday’s close (Feb. 6).
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House intelligence chair annouces probe into Trump’s finances, Russia links: CNN
German industrial output continues to fall: Reuters
European Commission predicts Germany avoided recession in Q4: Bloomberg
European Commission’s VP: Italy’s fragile economy is a risk: CNBC
Mfg productivity in US rose 1.3% in Q4, up from 1.1% in previous quarter: MW
US trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in Nov: CNBC
US mortgage applications fell again last week, slipping to 10-mo low: Reuters
Initial US Q4 GDP report re-scheduled for release on Feb 28: BEA
GDPNow estimate of US Q4 GDP growth ticks up to +2.7%: Atlanta Fed

The past two years have been an ideal period to test the risk-management techniques of tactical portfolio strategies, courtesy of high volatility and sudden shifts in global market trends. But as many investors have discovered, translating what looks promising on paper into real-world results is as challenging as ever.
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Trump’s State of the Union speech was wide-ranging: Politico
In speech to Congress, Trump vows to build border wall: Reuters
Trump will meet N. Korea’s Kim later this month in Vietnam: ABC
German factory orders fell again in Dec, fanning recession fear: Bloomberg
It’s a bull market for purchases of gold by central banks: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index: softer but still moderate growth prevailed in Jan: BB
“Solid output expansion” in Jan for US private sector via Composite PMI: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI: growth weakened for 5th straight month in Jan: IHS Markit
PMI survey: Global growth continued to slow January: IHS Markit

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded to an annualized 4.5% in January after slipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018. Today’s revised estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) represents the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
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What’s in store tonight for Trump’s State of Union address?: Bloomberg
Fed chairman and Trump met at White House on Monday: CNBC
PMI: Eurozone growth eases in January: IHS Markit
Himalayan glaciers at risk from global warming: USA Today
Should Congress stimulate the economy now to avoid recession later? NY Times
Light-vehicle sales in Jan fell below 17million units–first time since Aug: AutoWeek
US factory orders fell sharply in Nov; 1yr growth trend continues to weaken: MW