Across-the-board gains continue to mark this year’s results for global equity markets, based on a set of exchange-traded funds that track the world’s major regions and countries. At the top of the performance list so far in 2019: stocks in China, Latin America and Africa.
Continue reading →

Trump to meet with China’s top trade negotiator today: Bloomberg
Existing home sales in US fell to 3-year low in Jan: Reuters
Mortgage rates fall to 1-year low, suggesting possibility of housing rebound: MW
US core durable goods orders fell in December: CNBC
US jobless claims retreat, suggesting labor market remains strong: MW
Leading Economic Index for US ticked lower in Jan: CB
Philly Fed Index goes negative in Feb–first time in 3 years: MW
PMI survey data: US economic growth picked up in Feb: IHS Markit

The US economic trend continues to slow, but the deceleration – so far – has been gradual and non-threatening in terms of raising recession risk to a critical level. In other words, moderate growth prevails, albeit with a downside bias. If the deceleration rolls on, the potential for trouble may become elevated in the second half of 2019.
Continue reading →

US and China lay groundwork to end trade war: Reuters
House plans to block Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
UK’s prime minister (still) searching for solution to Brexit impasse: Bloomberg
Japan’s government: economy still recovering at ‘moderate pace’: MNI
Iran’s foreign minister: a conflict with Israel is possible: Reuters
Eurozone growth remains ‘muted’ in February via PMI survey data: IHS Markit
China may be planning to launch a more aggressive round of stimulus: CNBC
Fed minutes: policymakers see little risk to leaving rates steady: Reuters
Gold price jumps to 10-month high: MarketWatch

The bull run in US bonds shows no sign of slowing, based on year-to-date performances for a set of exchange-traded funds. All the major slices of fixed-income markets are posting gains through yesterday’s close (Feb. 19), with junk bonds leading the field by a solid margin.
Continue reading →

House Dems launch investigation into Trump administration’s Saudi deals: The Hill
Deputy Transportation Sec. Rosen to be nominated as dep. att. general: Politico
U.K. Prime Minister heads to Brussels to save Brexit deal: MW
Taiwan president says that China poses global threat: CNN
A China state-run newspaper warns of fallout from new US tariffs: CNBC
Walmart’s fiscal Q4 earnings surged: CNBC
Today’s release of Fed minutes may shed light on policy change: Bloomberg
Is the housing market too weak to trigger the next recession? NY Times
US home builder confidence increased for a second month in Feb: BB

Recent reports from the housing sector point to a new round of weakness in this critical slice of the US economy, potentially raising a warning flag for the year ahead. The jury’s still out, in part because a critical update has been delayed, due to the partial government shutdown that ended late last month. The Census Bureau has rescheduled the December figures on residential housing construction for next week (Feb. 26). Using a variety of sources to forecast the update suggests the numbers will bring a mixed bag of news.
Continue reading →

16 states sue to stop Trump’s use of emergency powers to build wall: The Hill
Trump warns Venezuela’s military to abandon Maduro or ‘lose everything’: Reuters
Global growth is estimated at weakest pace since financial crisis: Bloomberg
New round of US-China trade talks set to start today: Reuters
Huawei founder says arrest of firm’s CFO is politically motivated: CNBC
Are securities regulations too lax for index funds? NY Times
Honda announces plan to close UK factory as Brexit deadline nears CNN
US Treasury market trading opens this week with 10yr-2yr spread at 2-month low:

Equities in the US generated the strongest performance last week for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. By contrast, foreign bonds posted losses, representing the weakest results for the trading week through Feb. 15.
Continue reading →

Trump expected to demand that Venezuela’s Maduro step down: Bloomberg
ECB executive board member: Europe’s slowdown is “significant”: Bloomberg
Trump set to veto vote in Congress that rejects emergency declaration: The Hill
US stocks and bonds sending conflicting macro messages: CNBC
Foreign hackers ramp up cyber attacks on US companies: NY Times
Import prices for US fell for a third straight month: Newsmax
US industrial output fell in Jan for first time in 8 months: MW
NY Fed Mfg Index increased in Feb following weak reading in Jan: MW
US Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded in Feb after sharp drop: UoM