The unexpected drop in retail sales in December has raised uncertainty about the upcoming report on fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Prior to yesterday’s update on consumer spending for the final month of 2018 most estimates of the Q4 economic activity reflected moderate growth in the mid-to-high 2% range. But the St. Louis Fed’s GDPNow model slashed the Q4 outlook to a sluggish 1.5% after the release of retail sales data. That GDP estimate is an outlier on the downside at the moment. The question is whether nowcasts from other sources will fall in the days ahead as the latest retail data factors into the calculus?
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US-China trade talks set to continue, but no deal so far: SCMP
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Business inventories in US slipped in November: MW
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US retail spending fell sharply in December–biggest slide in over 9 years: CNBC