Monthly Archives: December 2018

Macro Briefing: 3 December 2018

Trump tweets that China agrees to cut tariffs on US-made cars: Bloomberg
China says it’s working with US to remove all tariffs: Reuters
Trump plans to leave NAFTA before Congress OKs its replacement: NY Times
Qatar announces it’s leaving OPEC: CNN
Eurozone mfg growth slips to weakest pace in more than two years: IHS Markit
Eurozone y-o-y inflation slipped to 2.0% in Nov after a near-6yr high: Reuters
UK mfg activity ticked up in Nov but sector growth remains ‘subdued’: IHS Markit
Chicago PMI popped to 11-month high in November: Chicago PMI
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread falls to 21 basis points — lowest since mid-Sep:

Book Bits | 1 December 2018

The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You
By Scott E. Page
Essay by author via Harvard Business Review
Without models, making sense of data is hard. Data helps describe reality, albeit imperfectly. On its own, though, data can’t recommend one decision over another. If you notice that your best-performing teams are also your most diverse, that may be interesting. But to turn that data point into insight, you need to plug it into some model of the world — for instance, you may hypothesize that having a greater variety of perspectives on a team leads to better decision-making. Your hypothesis represents a model of the world.
Though single models can perform well, ensembles of models work even better. That is why the best thinkers, the most accurate predictors, and the most effective design teams use ensembles of models. They are what I call, many-model thinkers.
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