Recession risk remains low for US, based on the latest economic data overall, but the Treasury market is pricing in a higher probability that growth will slow and perhaps lead to a downturn at some point in 2019. It’s still unlikely that output will contract in the near term, although a combination of political and economic risk factors has unleashed a repricing of the macro outlook for the year ahead.
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Stocks trade sharply lower on trade worries and economic outlook: Reuters
China vows fast action on trade commitments to US: BBC
Trump: no immediate plans to impose tariffs on German cars: NY Times
GOP senators say Saudi Crown Prince responsible for Khashoggi killing: The Hill
Former President George H.W. Bush to be honored at today’s state funeral: CNN
Political risk is a key threat for global economy in 2019: Bloomberg
Eurozone growth continued to slow in Nov, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread tumbles to 11 basis points: CNBC