Thursday’s release of ADP’s estimate of US private payrolls for November looks set to deliver another sign that US economic activity has peaked. The projected year-over-over increase (due on Dec. 6) still aligns with a healthy pace of jobs creation, but the mild deceleration trend appears to be on track to continue in the months ahead. A downturn in payrolls growth will align with numbers from other corners of the economy that point to a softer macro trend for the foreseeable future relative to the strong gains posted earlier this year.
Continue reading →

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up to an annualized 4.6% in November, slightly above the 4.5% estimate in the previous month. This outlook for GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes) reflects the ex ante premium over the projected “risk-free” rate for the long run.
Continue reading →

Trump advisers struggle to explain president’s trade deal with China: Bloomberg
OPEC working on plan to cut oil output: Reuters
Congress moves to delay threat of a gov’t shutdown: Politico
French gov’t reportedly set to suspend controversial fuel-tax hike: CNBC
EU lawyers: UK gov’t can unilaterally halt Brexit process: CNN
Parts of Treasury yield curve invert: MW
Global Mfg PMI indicates subdued growth in Nov: IHS Markit
Construction spending in US slipped for third month in Oct: TT
US Mfg PMI ticks down to moderately firm growth pace in Nov: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index increased in Nov after touching 5-month low: MW