Monthly Archives: October 2018

Macro Briefing: 12 October 2018

Amid rising trade tensions, Trump and Xi plan to meet in late November: WSJ
China’s exports surged in September: Reuters
Stocks in Europe and Asia rebound in Fridays’ trading: Bloomberg
Audio and video evidence proves Saudi journalist killed in consulate: WaPo
Firms rethink working with Saudi Arabia after journalist disappears: NY Times
Sidestepping the next recession could be difficult: The Economist
S&P 500 fell below 200-day avg on Thurs for first time since April: CNBC
Jobless claims rose last week but remain close to 49-year low: CNBC
US consumer inflation slowed in September: MarketWatch

Macro Briefing: 11 October 2018

Hurricane Michael ravages Florida, heads to Carolinas: CNN
US arrests Chinese military intel official for economic espionage: NY Times
US intel: Saudi crown prince ordered detention of journalist Khashoggi: CNBC
US futures on Thursday point to another wave of selling: CNBC
Trump says Fed ‘Has Gone Crazy’ after sharp down day in stocks: BBG
US Treasury Sec: stock market slide is ‘normal correction’: CNN
US producer prices rebounded in September: Reuters
Wholesale inventories in US increased a strong 1% in August: MarketWatch
Business inflation expectations for Sep tick up to 2.3%, a 6-mo high: Atlanta Fed
Recession risk may be rising for California’s economy: NY Times
US stock market fell 3.3% on Wed, biggest daily drop since Feb: CNBC

What Are You Expecting From Gold In Your Portfolio Strategy?

Gold is deemed an essential piece of the asset allocation pie in some corners. The reasons vary, depending on the investor, although it’s not uncommon to hear rationales that sound more like religious sermons on the mystical properties of the yellow metal. From an econometric perspective, gold’s attributes for portfolio design are relatively ordinary by way of closely aligning with the inverse return of the US dollar. As such, using gold in portfolios can and arguably should be viewed as a quasi-forex trade as opposed to an all-weather hedge that can never go wrong.
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Macro Briefing: 10 October 2018

Is China’s $1 trillion-plus Treasury portfolio a risk factor in a trade war? NY Times
Trump renews threat to slap more tariffs on Chinese imports: Reuters
IMF: investors are underestimating risk of a new financial crisis: Bloomberg
US Treasury secretary warns China on currency devaluation: FT
Hurricane Michael may be strongest storm to strike Florida’s Panhandle: WaPo
Nikki Haley, US ambassador to UN, surprises GOP with resignation: The Hill
Trump says Fed is hiking rates too fast: Politico
Sears reportedly close to bankruptcy filing: CNBC
US Small Business Optimism Index remains close to 45-year high in Sep: NFIB

Deep-Value ETF Report: A Slightly Longer List

The search for deep-value plays in the ETF realm delivered a short list in August, when markets were humming far and wide. Let’s take a fresh review of the landscape in the wake of recent selling, which has pinched nearly every corner of global stocks, bonds, and real estate securities. Commodities have fared better in recent weeks, but this slice of the major asset classes was already suffering from a longer-run perspective and so there are still plenty of relative bargains on this front.
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Macro Briefing: 9 October 2018

IMF: trade war will pinch economic growth in US and China in 2019: CNN
Trump ignores UN’s dire report on climate change: NY Times
Hurricane Michael strengthens as it approaches Florida’s panhandle: Reuters
US Treasury yields edge up to new multi-year highs in early Tues trading: CNBC
Nobel prize in economics awarded for climate change and tech innovation: WaPo
No political fix expected for rising US debt load: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing: 8 October 2018

Did GOP trade majorities in Congress for a conservative Supreme Court? CNN
Senate Majority Leader: opposition to Kavanaugh is ‘gift’ for GOP: WaPo
US Sec of State cited “fundamental disagreement” with China: BBG
N. Korea ready to allow inspections of its missile, nuclear sites: Reuters
Khashoggi case is a crisis for US-Saudi ties: WaPo
UN climate report: high risk of crisis from climate change by 2040: NY Times
Tropical Storm Michael may hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as hurricane: CBS
China’s central bank rolls out stimulus to shore up economy: SCMP
Far-right candidate wins first round of Brazil’s presidential election: BBC
US job growth cooled in Sep as unemployment rate fell to 3.7%: Reuters
10yr Treasury yield spiked to 3.23% last week, highest since 2011: