US and foreign stock markets firmed up last week, including the recently pummeled slice of emerging-markets equities, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Meanwhile, US investment-grade bonds and broadly defined commodities posted the only setbacks for the major asset classes over the five trading days through Sep. 14.
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Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination in doubt after allegations: The Hill
Hurricane Florence: ‘worst is still yet to come’ for Carolinas: CNN
Typhoon Mangkhut slams southern China: RTE
Reports that US is set to impose more tariffs on China worry investors: Reuters
Stocks in China slide to lowest level in nearly 4 years: Bloomberg
Markets pricing in less hawkish monetary policy vs Fed’s outlook: St Louis Fed
Will the strong economy influence voters in Nov? Maybe not: NY Times
Import prices for US post largest drop in 1-1/2 years in August: CNBC
US business inventories up in July, signaling healthy economy: MarketWatch
Consumer sentiment jumps to 6-month high in September: Blooomberg
US auto production helped lift US industrial output in August: Reuters
One-year US retail spending holds steady at healthy pace through August:

● Big Debt Crises
Also available as a free pdf
By Ray Dalio
Review via MarketWatch
Let’s make one thing perfectly clear: Ray Dalio sees parallels between the U.S. today and during the unstable 1930s, but the billionaire hedge-fund manager does not expect the next financial crisis to rival the one that knee-capped Americans in 2008 and nearly triggered another Great Depression.
That said, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, is concerned that when the downturn hits — likely within the next couple of years, by his reckoning — investors, companies, politicians and policy makers will be blindsided, or worse. Capitalism and democracy, our system of government, will be under heavier fire than it is already.
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The surge in US economic output in the second quarter is expected to moderate in Q3, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate continues to anticipate a healthy 3.2% increase for Q3, slightly below the median projection in late-August.
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Hurricane Florence hammers Carolinas: Fox
Turkey sharply raised interest rates to fight inflation, weak currency: CNBC
Eurozone labor costs rise at fastest pace in nearly 6 years: Reuters
Gov’t shutdown risk may be rising for US as Sep 30 budget deadline nears: Vox
Shiller: US stocks could rise a lot more before correcting: Bloomberg
US consumer inflation eased in Aug, first downshift in annual pace this year: BBG
Jobless claims in US tick down, at 49-year low: MarketWatch
US is now world’s largest crude oil producer: US Energy Dept

Stock markets in the Middle East continue to hold a modest edge over US equities in the year-to-date horse race for regional stock-market performances. The gap is closing, however, in favor of American shares after a bout of weakness in Middle Eastern prices, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.
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Carolinas brace for Hurricane Florence: CNN
Hong Kong prepares for Super Typhoon Mangkhut: South China Morning Post
US seeking to restart trade talks with China: CNBC
European Parliament votes to sanction Hungary: Reuters
US jets intercept Russian bombers near Alaska for 2nd time this month: BI
Trump’s high disapproval rating contrasts with strong US economy: Bloomberg
Bridgewater’s Dalio: US recession likely within 2 years: Bloomberg
Business inflation expectations steady at 2.2% in Sep: Atlanta Fed
Fed: some businesses delay investment due to trade concerns: Reuters
Wholesale inflation in US continues to weak for annual pace: MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again later this month, but if that’s another signal that headwinds are building for fixed-income securities the warning isn’t resonating in the junk bond market these days.
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US industry groups set to fight US policy on trade tariffs: Reuters
Russia starts its largest war games since Soviet Union fell: Reuters
Russia’s oil minister: US trade war against China is headwind for oil market: CNBC
Hurricane Florence strengthens as it approaches US East Coast: Bloomberg
China’s export hub feels pressure from trade war with US: SCMP
Democrats still poised to retake House in November election: FiveThirtyEight
Optimism among small US business owners rises to record high in August: MW
US job openings surge to record high for July: CNBC

How old is the bull market in US stocks? By some accounts, we’re knee-deep in the oldest run on record. But some analysts beg to differ. Thanks to several possibilities for measuring such things, there’s a debate about the appropriate methodology for dating the age of the current run-up in stock prices. Here’s one more: measuring the bull market from the point when the last NBER-defined recession ended. By that measure, the current rise is the second longest on record, based on modern history of the S&P 500 (since the mid-1950s).
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