N. Korea criticizes US after Washington cancels trip to Pyongyang: Reuters
US trade war with China appears set to escalate: Bloomberg
Trade war will have bigger impact on debt vs. GDP in China: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman Powell stays focused on gradual rate hikes: CBS
US stocks via S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Friday: MW
US 10yr-2yr yield spread fell to 19 basis points, another new 11-year low: FX Street
Superstar firms may explain slow wage growth, investment spending: NY Times
Germany has second thoughts about investments from China: SCMP
Headline US durable goods orders fell in July as business investment rose sharply:
Monthly Archives: August 2018
Senator John McCain: 1936-2018
Sen. John McCain, a Vietnam War hero, Republican presidential contender, and influential voice in Congress, died yesterday, August 25. As Politico notes, “McCain’s life was like something out of a Hollywood movie script — he was a naval officer and a jet pilot, a war hero and politician. Yet he was ultimately denied the brass ring he most clearly wanted: becoming president of the United States.”
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Book Bits | 25 August 2018
● Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary
By Louis Hyman
Q&A with author via Slate
In his new book Temp: How American Work, American Business, and the American Dream Became Temporary, Louis Hyman looks at the reasons behind the temporary nature of so much of the American economy. Eschewing the thesis that companies like Uber are primarily responsible for people working jobs without proper benefits and protections, Hyman examines the changes in American corporate life after the 1950s and 1960s, and why the much-mythologized postwar years were less rosy than we think. At the same time, he explains that the postwar era did offer protections for workers that have lately become much sparser and posits that the challenge going forward is to ensure that Americans keep the flexibility they now seem to want, while simultaneously not being exploited by the companies they work for.
Is this even possible? I recently spoke by phone with Hyman, who is an associate professor of history at the ILR School at Cornell University, to ask.
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Will The Narrowing Yield Curve Force The Fed To Rethink Policy?
The difference in the widely followed spread in 10- and 2-year Treasuries slipped to 21 basis points on Thursday (August 23), marking yet another 11-year low, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The narrowing gap is stoking debate about whether a new recession is near and the wisdom of what’s expected to be another rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. Based on current data, however, the economic data continues to reflect a healthy macro trend for the US. The question is whether various risks on the horizon, including a US trade war with China, will delay or even derail the central bank’s plans for higher rates?
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Macro Briefing: 24 August 2018
Arctic’s “last bastion” of sea ice is melting: USA Today
US-China trade war set to roll on despite latest talks: Bloomberg
China’s foreign minister: counter-strikes to US trade tariffs will continue: Reuters
Fed warns that escalating trade war is a threat to economy: CNN Money
New US home sales fell to 9-month low in July: CNBC
House prices in US rise at slowest pace in four years: HousingWire
Economists expect US durable goods orders for US will slump in July: Econoday
US jobless claims point to continue strength in labor market: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI ticks up to 2-month high in August: IHS Markit
PMI data shows that US private-sector growth slowed in August: IHS Markit
A Brief Intermission…
The Capital Spectator is slipping out of the office early today and taking a day off tomorrow. The game plan is to return to the usual grind on Friday, August 24. Cheers!
US Small Cap Stocks Continue To Set New Highs
The S&P 500 briefly traded in record territory yesterday before closing just below an all-time peak. Small-cap stocks, however, had no trouble setting new highs.
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Macro Briefing: 22 August 2018
Cohen pleads guilty, implicating Trump: CNN
Former Trump campaign chairman Manafort convicted on fraud charges: The Hill
Legal blows raises impeachment risk for Trump: Politico
Pressure rising on Trump to take a tougher stand on Russia: CNBC
US-China trade talks set to continue today: Reuters
Economists expect further slowdown in China’s growth if trade war rolls on: SCMP
US existing home sales for July expected to edge lower in today’s release: MW
S&P 500 briefly trades at a record high before closing just below previous peak:
Deep-Value ETF Report: Slim Pickings After A Long Bull Run
It’s been nearly a decade since the nadir of the global financial crisis. Courtesy of a broad-based upswing for most of the years since, the big picture for picking up assets on the cheap is one of scarcity. In relative terms, bargains can be found, of course. Comparing stocks in emerging markets to US equities, for example, is a study in contrasts on a year-to-date basis, based on a set of exchange-traded funds: Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), a US proxy, is up 8.3% so far in 2018 through August 20 vs. an 8.8% slide in Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO). But finding value in something approximating clear and ambiguous absolute terms beyond recent history is a tougher challenge.
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Macro Briefing: 21 August 2018
US business leaders warn that more China sanctions will be painful: NY Times
New Russian hacking efforts targeting Senate, conservative think tanks: CNN
Malaysian prime minister cancels China-backed infrastructure projects: Reuters
Fed’s plan for more rate hikes faces challenges from foreign risks: Reuters
Trump complains about Fed’s rate hikes at fund-raising event: Bloomberg
10yr-2yr Treasury yield spread falls to new post-recession low of 22 basis points: