The risk of trade war with China may be lurking, but for now the US macro trend remains healthy. A broad set of indicators continue to reflect low recession risk and a revised forecast for the business cycle suggests more of the same through next month.
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White House split over response for trade policy for China: Bloomberg
Supreme Court: states can force online retails to collect taxes: CNN
Opec’s deal to boost oil output remains in doubt: Reuters
European Union’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods begin today: BBC
Eurozone business activity regained some momentum in June: IHS Markit
US jobless claims dip for fourth week in a row: MarketWatch
Philly Fed Mfg Index downshifts to 19-month low in June: MarketWatch
Wealth for US millennials is 34% below levels v. earlier generations: Bloomberg
10yr-2yr Treasury spread ticks down to 34 basis points, a new post-recession low: