Trump will announce decision on Iran nuclear deal today: Reuters
Iran’s currency near record lows ahead of Trump decision on nuclear deal: Reuters
More Venezuelan soldiers are deserting ahead of presidential election: Bloomberg
China’s trade surplus with US rises more than expected in April: CNBC
US consumer credit growth slowed in March to 6-month low: MW
Fed chairman: markets expect gradual rate hikes: Bloomberg
White House looking for bigger-than-expected spending cuts: Fiscal Times
Former Fed governor: the Fed should consider its own cryptocurrency: NY Times
US oil prices top $70 on Monday for first time since Nov 2017: Reuters

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US again posted the biggest weekly gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The ongoing bounce for REITs contrasts with a generally down week for most markets over the five trading days through May 4.
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Lava flows from Hawaii’s volcano eruption intensify: ABC
Iran and Israel issue warnings as deadline nears for Iran nuclear deal: NY Times
N. Korea says Trump’s claims about upcoming summit are “misleading”: CBS
Oil prices rise to 3-1/2 year high: MarketWatch
Nafta trade talks face critical juncture this week: Reuters
Democrats under pressure to focus on economy: The Hill
US job growth rebounded in April after sluggish rise in March: Reuters
Germany’s manufacturing orders fell for 3rd month in March: MarketWatch
California to become first state to require solar panels in new homes: Tech Times
California’s economy now world’s 5th largest, ahead of UK: LA Times
PMI survey data shows global economic activity ticked up in April: IHS Markit

● Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World
By Nomi Prins
Interview with author via KALW
Prins argues that since the global financial crisis, big banks have massively profited from access to cheap money. She writes, “No significant regulations have been introduced to fix the structural problems behind the last financial crisis. Banks and the markets have been subsidized by conjured-money policy.” She calls it a heist that enables the most powerful banks and central bankers to run the world. How can this rigged system be dismantled?
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US companies added 168,000 workers in April, moderately more than the 138,000 gain in the previous month, which marked the softest increase since last September, the Labor Department reports. The advance kept the annual trend steady, which suggests that moderate growth for the labor market overall remains a reasonable forecast for the near term.
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The Equity Risk Premium in 2018
John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University)
March 27, 2018
We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to December 2017. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. The average risk premium is 4.42% and is somewhat higher than the average observed over the past 18 years. We also provide results on the risk premium disagreement among respondents as well as asymmetry or skewness of risk premium estimates. We also link our risk premium results to survey-based measures of the weighted average cost of capital and investment hurdle rates. The hurdle rates are significantly higher than the cost of capital implied by the market risk premium estimates.
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US-China trade talks end with no deal: Bloomberg
US warns China over militarization of the South China Sea: Reuters
US job cuts fall 40% in April after surging in March: CG&C
Jobless claims in US rise after falling to lowest level since 1969: MW
Worker productivity in US rose at sluggish rate in Q1: WaPo
US Services PMI ticks up to 3-mo high in April, signaling solid growth: IHS Markit
ISM Mfg Index: growth downshifts in US services sector in April: CNBC
Solid pace of US factory orders points to ongoing mfg growth: Freight Waves
S&P 500 tests 200-day moving average intra-day and then bounces higher:

A wobbly equity market, expectations for higher interest rates and weaker economic growth in the first quarter have inspired some pundits to claim that bear-market risk for stocks has spiked higher in recent weeks. Perhaps, but there’s still room for debate, based on a review of key indicators.
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Fed leaves rates unchanged but remains on track for more hikes: WSJ
Fed appears to be tolerant of higher inflation: Bloomberg
Trade talks between US and China set to begin in Beijing: Reuters
Trump will likely withdraw from Iran nuclear deal: Reuters
Giuliani says Trump paid hush money: NY Times
Eurozone inflation data surprises with softer rise in April: Reuters
ADP: US private employment growth slowed in April but remained solid: MW
Uptick in global mfg PMI inspires forecasts of stronger global growth: Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in today’s monetary policy announcement, but firmer inflation in recent months lays the foundation for hikes in the months ahead.
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