Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
Kasey Buckles (University of Notre Dame), at al.
March 28, 2018
Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.
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Trump cancels N. Korea meeting and China stands to benefit: NY Times
Taiwan scrambles jets as Chinese bombers circle island: Reuters
EU official: UK ‘chasing a fantasy’ in Brexit talks: Guardian
Revised UK GDP data for Q1 remains at sluggish +0.1%: Bloomberg
Mexican president is ‘optimistic’ as country makes new NAFTA offer: Reuters
Big tech faces big lawsuits as Europe’s new data protection law kicks in: CNN
ECB minutes: Euro zone growth could slow further: Reuters
US existing home sales fall in Apr; y-o-y change is negative for 2nd month: Builder
US jobless claims increase to 7-week high: MarketWatch
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index rises to new record high in May: KC Fed
2018 Atlantic hurricane season expected to be near- or above-normal: NOAA

The Federal Reserve is prepared to let inflation run above its two-percent target, according to the minutes of its policy meeting held earlier this month. The bond market appears comfortable with the news: the implied inflation forecast (based on the yield spread between nominal and inflation-indexed Treasuries) ticked down yesterday, reaching the lowest level in over a month for the 10-year maturities. Meanwhile, the crowd continues to bet that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates, including a hike at next month’s FOMC meeting. A period of dovish tightening, in other words, prevails.
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N. Korea again raises doubts about summit with US: MarketWatch
Trump is eyeing new tariffs on auto imports into US: CNN Money
US disinvites China for naval exercise: Politico
New US home sales dipped in Apr but continued to rise on y-o-y basis: MW
Fed minutes: officials will let inflation run above 2% target: CNBC
US opens investigation into Bitcoin manipulation: Bloomberg
US economic activity strengthened to a 3-month high in May: IHS Markit

The US stock market has suffered a rough ride so far in 2018, but technology shares remain the strongest trend performer for the major US equity sectors, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through yesterday’s close (May 22).
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US-N. Korea summit in doubt, Trump says: CNN
Trump hints at new round of tax cuts ahead of Nov elections: MarketWatch
Republican senators have doubts about Trump’s trade talks with China: The Hill
Fed’s Mester sees possibility of stronger inflation ahead: MNI
Eurozone growth slips to 1-1/2 year low in May: IHS Markit
Americans report stronger finances in new Fed survey: Reuters
Richmond Fed mfg index rebounds in May: Richmond Fed
US employment optimism rises to new high: Gallup
US gasoline rises to highest price since late-2014:

The Global Market Index (GMI) — an unmanaged, market-value weighted portfolio comprised of the major asset classes — is expected to earn an annualized 4.9% risk premium (return over the “risk-free” rate) in the long run, based on analysis of data through April 2018.
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S. Korea’s president to meet Trump on Tues for N. Korea discussion: CNN
US reinforces E. Asia’s missile defenses ahead of N. Korea summit: Reuters
Trump retreats from imposing sanctions on China: Bloomberg
US demands Iran make changes to policy or face economic sanctions: Reuters
Goldman’s chief economist: US fiscal outlook is troubling: CNBC
Philly Fed president supports 2 to 3 rate hikes for the rest of 2018: Reuters
Minneapolis Fed president warns against aggressive interest rate hikes: MW
Atlanta Fed president: Fed close to its inflation, employment goals: Reuters
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: 3-mo avg for Apr rises to 2018 high: Chicago Fed

Markets declined last week in nearly every corner of the major asset classes, with the lone exception of broadly defined commodities, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
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Iran says EU support for nuclear deal is insufficient: Reuters
Trump is having second thoughts about meeting with N. Korea’s leader: The Hill
Trump demands investigation on Russia investigation’s surveillance tactics: CNN
Mueller will reportedly end obstruction inquiry on Trump by Sep 1: NY Times
Treasury Secretary: US putting China tariffs on hold during negotiations: LA Times
China tests bombers in South China Sea: CNN
Venezuela’s Maduro wins election amid claims of vote rigging: BBC
JP Morgan’s Dimon: rising yields with econ growth is “normalization”: Bloomberg
NY Fed’s revised US Q2 GDP nowcast ticks up to +3.2%: NY Fed