The latest announcements by the US and China to slap trade tariffs on each other could take a bite out of economic growth. But at this stage it’s just talk. The potential for trouble in the months ahead can’t be dismissed. Meantime, the current estimates for first-quarter GDP growth in the US point to a continuation of the moderate expansion that prevailed in the final three months of 2017.
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US-China trade battle: minor bump for economy if it doesn’t escalate: USA Today
White House says trade tariff talk is part of a negotiating tactic: NY Times
SE Asia considers trade-war blowback with plans for policy changes: Bloomberg
GOP to Trump: a trade war could have political cost in Nov election: Bloomberg
US expected to impose more sanctions on Russia: Washington Post
ADP: US private employment up a strong 241,000 in March: MarketWatch
ISM Non-Mfg Index posted slower but still-solid growth for US in March: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eased in March but remained strong: IHS Markit
Broad-based increase reported for US factory orders in Feb: Reuters
ADP estimate of US private payrolls: +1.9% y-o-y in March, highest in 18 months:

Last month’s review of return correlations highlighted the challenge of finding strong diversification opportunities among the major asset classes for designing and managing portfolios. Does the landscape offer better choices if we expand the opportunity set by adding alternative strategies to the mix?
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US lays out plans for tariffs on 1,300 Chinese goods: CNBC
China vows to retaliate on US tariffs with “measures of equal intensity”: Reuters
Japan ponders upcoming meeting with Trump as trade-war risk rises: Reuters
Trump says he’ll send military to secure US-Mexico border: NY Times
Senior China diplomat offers support N. Korea-S.Korea-US summit: AP
Russia, Iran and Turkey meet to discuss Syria: Reuters
San Francisco Fed President named to lead NY Fed: Politico
Global mfg growth slows to five-month low in March: IHS Markit

This much is clear: the sharp decline in the S&P 500 yesterday (April 2) confirms that the downside bias in the first three months of the year has spilled over into the second quarter. It’s also obvious that the latest market stumble has inspired a new round of warnings from analysts.
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Wall Street falls sharply amid tech and trade-war concerns: Reuters
Korea expert recommends cancelling Trump-Kim meeting: CNBC
US ISM Mfg Index edged down to still-strong 59.3 for March: MarketWatch
US Mfg PMI rose to 3-year high in March: IHS Markit
Construction spending in US posted a weak 0.1% gain in February: Reuters
Eurozone mfg sentiment still positive in Mar, but eased to 8-month low: IHS Markit
German retail spending fell for third month in February: Reuters
Fed funds futures predicting no change in rates at FOMC meeting in May: CME
US visitor visas fall 13% over past year: Politico

The major asset classes delivered mixed performances in March. Stocks in the US and foreign markets fell while US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and foreign inflation-linked government bonds posted the strongest gains.
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China imposes tariffs on a range of US goods: Wall St Journal
Trump: US may leave NAFTA unless Mexico tightens border security: Bloomberg
Israel faces new military and political challenges after deadly clash in Gaza: WSJ
Deadly clashes erupt in Kashmir between Indian army and militants: BBC
Tariff war threatens US farm economy, a Trump stronghold: NY Times
Guidelines for estimating which countries are at risk in a trade war: ETF Trends
Sentiment in China’s mfg sector dips to 4-mo low in March: IHS Markit
Tech firms brace for new European Union privacy law: The Hill
US stock market’s Q1 close is near lowest level for quarter: MarketWatch