The latest announcements by the US and China to slap trade tariffs on each other could take a bite out of economic growth. But at this stage it’s just talk. The potential for trouble in the months ahead can’t be dismissed. Meantime, the current estimates for first-quarter GDP growth in the US point to a continuation of the moderate expansion that prevailed in the final three months of 2017.
Continue reading →

US-China trade battle: minor bump for economy if it doesn’t escalate: USA Today
White House says trade tariff talk is part of a negotiating tactic: NY Times
SE Asia considers trade-war blowback with plans for policy changes: Bloomberg
GOP to Trump: a trade war could have political cost in Nov election: Bloomberg
US expected to impose more sanctions on Russia: Washington Post
ADP: US private employment up a strong 241,000 in March: MarketWatch
ISM Non-Mfg Index posted slower but still-solid growth for US in March: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eased in March but remained strong: IHS Markit
Broad-based increase reported for US factory orders in Feb: Reuters
ADP estimate of US private payrolls: +1.9% y-o-y in March, highest in 18 months: