Taiwan sends jets to shadow China’s air force drills near island: Reuters
US Treasury Secretary looking for ways to lower US-China trade risk: Bloomberg
European Union’s competition minister considers breaking up Google: Telegraph
World stocks rise on Monday on reports of US-China trade negotiations: Reuters
San Francisco Fed chief may be next leader at NY Fed: WSJ
US and S. Korea agree to revise trade agreement: Bloomberg
US durable goods orders post a strong rebound in February: MarketWatch
S&P 500 Index closes on Friday just above widely followed 200-day average:

● Meltdown: Why Our Systems Fail and What We Can Do About It
By Chris Clearfield and Andras Tilcsik
Excerpt via Big Think
We can’t turn back the clock and return to a simpler world. Airlines shouldn’t switch back to paper tickets and traders shouldn’t abandon computers. Instead, we need to figure out how to manage these new systems. Fortunately, an emerging body of research reveals how we can overcome these challenges.
The first step is to recognize that the world has changed. But that’s a surprisingly hard thing to do, even in an era where businesses seem to celebrate new technologies like blockchain and AI. When we interviewed the former CEO of Knight Capital years after the firm’s technological meltdown, he said, “We weren’t a technology company—we were a broker that used technology.” Thinking of technology as a support function, rather than the core of a company, has worked for years. But it doesn’t anymore.
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Fears of a global trade war are rattling stock markets around the world after President Trump imposed tariffs on China on Thursday. China’s commerce ministry responded immediately with tariffs on US imports. If trade restrictions escalate, there will be a price to pay in economic growth and so this evolving news story deserves close attention for monitoring macro risk. For the moment, however, using data published to date, US recession risk remains virtually nil.
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Hawkish makeover of US foreign policy rolls on with Bolton appointment: Atlantic
Trump OKs new China tariffs and stocks tumble on fears of trade war: Reuters
China threatens to respond to US tariffs with trade limits on imports: WaPo
Senate passes $1.3 trillion spending bill, averts gov’t shutdown: Bloomberg
US Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in Feb–fourth straight gain: CNBC
US jobless claims ticked up but still near lowest levels since 1970: MarketWatch
US Composite PMI for Feb points to moderate 2.5% GDP growth for Q1: IHS Markit
FHFA Index: US house prices up 7.3% year over year in Jan: Builder
Manufacturing activity still strong in Fed’s 10th district: Wichita Business Journal
S&P 500 Index tumbled 2.5% on Thursday, closing at lowest level since February 9:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, at his first press conference as the head of the central bank, announced a hike in interest rates. Tighter monetary policy was widely expected. What was surprising was Powell’s comments on the value of the Treasury yield curve as a tool for predicting the next US recession.
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Congress unveils $1.3 trillion budget that’ll keep gov’t open till Sep: CNN
Trump moving ahead on Chinese tariffs, raising trade-war risk: LA Times
A list of most-vulnerable US targets in a trade war with China: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve raises target interest rate to 1.5%-to-1.75% range: CNBC
Fed raises 2018’s GDP growth estimate to 2.7%  and 2.4% for 2019: Fed Reserve
Chinese paper: China should prepare for military action over Taiwan: Reuters
Over 40 African nations sign free-trade pact: NY Times
Sales of existing US homes rose 3% in February: USA Today
US current account widens more than expected in Q4: Reuters
S&P 500 ticks down to lowest close since Mar 2 after Fed rate hike:

Intech Investment Management recently published a primer on monitoring market stress by way of several risk metrics, including skewness of returns (SoR). In the grand scheme of quantifying risk, SoR is relatively obscure, but Intech makes a good case for paying more attention to this data.
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S. Korea’s president hints at 3-way talks with N. Korea and US: CNN
Trump admin may expel Russian diplomats after UK poisoning: CNN
Spending bill in Congress delayed, raising shutdown risk: The Hill
Trump expected to impose tariffs, restrictions on China on Thurs: MarketWatch
A US-China trade war would hurt but not trigger a recession: Bloomberg
Key issues to monitor for today’s Fed policy announcement: NY Times 
G20 meeting focused on trade disruptions as risk to global growth: Reuters
Eurozone consumer confidence reading for March holds steady: Reuters
2-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.34%, a 10-year high, ahead of Fed meeting:

US economic growth in the first quarter will match the modest pace reported in last year’s Q4, according to estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median Q1 forecast points to a 2.5% increase in output, the gain reported for 2017’s final three months, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Trump set to impose $60 billion annual tariff on China: The Hill
Possible gov’t shutdown looms as Congress weighs massive spending bill: CNN
Will upcoming US-S. Korea Military drills rattle N. Korea? Bloomberg
Decisions by China’s new central bank chief will impact world economy: NY Times
Foreigners own a record 40% of outstanding US corp bonds: Moody’s Analytics
Germany’s central bank expects strong economic growth to continue: MNI
Fed funds futures pricing in a 94% probability of a rate hike on Wed: CME