Fears of a global trade war are rattling stock markets around the world after President Trump imposed tariffs on China on Thursday. China’s commerce ministry responded immediately with tariffs on US imports. If trade restrictions escalate, there will be a price to pay in economic growth and so this evolving news story deserves close attention for monitoring macro risk. For the moment, however, using data published to date, US recession risk remains virtually nil.
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Hawkish makeover of US foreign policy rolls on with Bolton appointment: Atlantic
Trump OKs new China tariffs and stocks tumble on fears of trade war: Reuters
China threatens to respond to US tariffs with trade limits on imports: WaPo
Senate passes $1.3 trillion spending bill, averts gov’t shutdown: Bloomberg
US Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in Feb–fourth straight gain: CNBC
US jobless claims ticked up but still near lowest levels since 1970: MarketWatch
US Composite PMI for Feb points to moderate 2.5% GDP growth for Q1: IHS Markit
FHFA Index: US house prices up 7.3% year over year in Jan: Builder
Manufacturing activity still strong in Fed’s 10th district: Wichita Business Journal
S&P 500 Index tumbled 2.5% on Thursday, closing at lowest level since February 9: