Senate OKs bill to avert government shutdown, sends it to House: The Hill
Higher US budget-deficit risk is weighing on the stock market too: AP
Asia stocks tumble on Friday after Wall Street’s plunge on Thursday: Reuters
Oil prices continue to slide as supply fears mount: Reuters
New photos show extent of China’s military buildup in S. China Sea: NY Times
Bank of England hints at earlier, faster rate hikes: BBC
US jobless claims fall, nearing 45-year low: Reuters
VIX futures curve in backwardation, signaling outlook for more vol: Bloomberg
Monthly Archives: February 2018
VIX vs. Stock Market Volatility: Similar But Different
The recent plunge in the US stock market ended the extended run of tranquility in equity returns. The media’s metric of choice to cite this change is the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which surged earlier this week to the highest level in nearly three years, based on daily data. The upward explosion was even sharper on an intraday basis.
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Macro Briefing: 8 February 2018
Senate leaders agree to 2-year spending deal: NY Times
Pro-government forces in Syria attack US troops: WaPo
Dallas Fed President: US growth could slip over next 2 years: Reuters
Dept of Homeland Security: Russians penetrated US voter systems: CNBC
Canada Prime Minister raises doubts about revising NAFTA with US: Reuters
US consumer credit increased to a record $3.84 trillion (s.a.) in Dec: MarketWatch
Late-day rise in Treasury yields coincides with late-day slide in stocks: Bloomberg
10-yr T-Note yield rebounds to 2.84%, matching Monday’s 4-yr high: Treasury.gov
Federal Reserve Is Still Expected To Raise Rates Next Month
The stock market turbulence in recent days has rattled investors, but the Federal Reserve remains on track to lift interest rates at the March policy meeting, according to this morning’s implied forecast via Fed fund futures.
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Macro Briefing: 7 February 2018
House OKs bill to avoid US gov’t shutdown, but Senate approval is unclear: Politico
US trade deficit for 2017 at highest level since 2008: The Hill
Trump favors shutdown if Dems don’t agree to immigration demands: The HIll
Germany’s main parties end deadlock and form coalition: Reuters
US job openings fall to seven-month low in Dec: Bloomberg
Growth outlook for UK ticks up: MNI
Market crash claims its first victims for VIX-linked products: Bloomberg
Analyst Ed Yardeni remains bullish on outlook for equities: Yardeni.com
GDPNow model projects strong 4.0% gain for US GDP in Q1: Atlanta Fed
What Does History Tell Us About The Stock Market’s Dive?
The 4.1% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday looks ominous, all the more so since it follows last week’s hefty 3.8% decline. But focusing on what just happened distorts our capacity to maintain a healthy sense of historical perspective. As an antidote, let’s step back and consider the latest market action through a longer-term lens.
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Macro Briefing: 6 February 2018
World stock markets continue to dive on Tuesday: Reuters
Monday’s 1175-point Dow slide is a record for absolute declines: WSJ
Global policy makers react to stock market plunge: Bloomberg
Re-evaluating the wisdom of tax cuts after the market slide: NY Times
US ISM Non-Mfg Index surges in Jan, near 10-year high: CNBC
PMI: US services sector growth eases to nine-month low in Jan: IHS Markit
Survey data shows global economic growth at 40-mo high in Jan: IHS Markit
All The Major Asset Classes Took A Hit Last Week
Red ink spilled across all corners of global markets last week, reversing the previous week’s clean sweep of gains, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The perfect storm of losses marks the first round of weekly declines in every market since Dec. 2016.
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Macro Briefing: 5 February 2018
Global stock markets fall on Monday amid inflation fears and rising rates: Reuters
What’s behind Friday’s sharp slide in US stocks? Politico
Powell, to be sworn in today as new Fed chair, faces new economic risks: AP
US employment jumps 200k in January as wage growth accelerates: BI
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips in Jan but still near all-time high: CNBC
Factory orders rise for fifth straight month in December: Reuters
Outgoing Fed chair says Prices `High’ for Stocks, Comm. Real Estate: Bloomberg
PMI survey: Eurozone economic growth nears 12-year high in January: IHS Markit
10-year Treasury yield rises to 2.84%, a four-year high: MarketWatch
Reviewing Last Week’s Stock Market Decline In Historical Context
How bad was last week’s rout in US equities? The slide is the biggest weekly drop for the S&P 500 Index in over two years. But that’s not saying much, given how calm the upside bias for the equity trend has been lately. Perhaps the bigger surprise is that we’ve gone so long without a meaningful setback. But don’t be too quick to dismiss the latest fall from grace as insignificant. A deeper review of the numbers reveals that the S&P’s 3.9% slump over the five trading days through Feb. 2 marks one of the deepest on record for the past six decades-plus.
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