The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields fell to 57 basis points on Monday (Dec. 4), according to Treasury.gov’s daily data. The dip marks yet another post-recession low for this widely monitored spread. The flattening of the yield curve implies that the economy is facing stronger headwinds, based on the spread’s history vis-à-vis the US business cycle. But the macro trend remains solid at the moment, suggesting that the 10-year/2-year yield gap has shed its value, at least temporarily, as an early warning of US recession risk.
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Monthly Archives: December 2017
Macro Briefing: 5 December 2017
Supreme Court OKs Trump travel ban: NY Times
Killing of Yemen’s ex-president will impact Yemen’s civil war: Guardian
Brexit talks grind to a halt over Irish border standoff: Reuters
SEC’s new cyber unit halts initial coin offering scam: RTT
Factory orders dip 0.1% in Oct; business spending solid: Reuters
Eurozone economic growth strengthens in Nov, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
Average retirement account at Fidelity hits record high: Bloomberg
US Stocks Bucked The Trend With Another Solid Gain Last Week
Selling dominated trading last week for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The main exception: US equities, which posted a solid advance.
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Macro Briefing: 4 December 2017
More N. Korea saber rattling as US-S.Korea war games begin: CNN
Treacherous path for Congress for avoiding gov’t shutdown: NY Times
CVS buying Aetna, a deal that could rehsape healthcare industry: USA Today
BIS: “Frothy” markets should be addressed via monetary policy: CNBC
ISM Mfg Index for US dips in Nov but still reflects strong growth: USA Today
US construction spending up sharply in Oct, driven by gov’t spending: Reuters
PMI survey data points to slower but “robust” US mfg growth in Nov: IHS Markit
Global survey PMI data for mfg rises to 80-month high in Nov: IHS Markit
Book Bits | 2 December 2017
● Big Mind: How Collective Intelligence Can Change Our World
By Geoff Mulgan
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
A new field of collective intelligence has emerged in the last few years, prompted by a wave of digital technologies that make it possible for organizations and societies to think at large scale. This “bigger mind”—human and machine capabilities working together—has the potential to solve the great challenges of our time. So why do smart technologies not automatically lead to smart results? Gathering insights from diverse fields, including philosophy, computer science, and biology, Big Mind reveals how collective intelligence can guide corporations, governments, universities, and societies to make the most of human brains and digital technologies.
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Major Asset Classes | November 2017 | Performance Review
US stocks resumed the lead in November as the top performer for the major asset classes. The Russell 3000 Index gained 3.0% last month, the strongest advance since February and the 13th consecutive month of positive total returns for the benchmark.
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Macro Briefing: 1 December 2017
GOP tax bill stalls in Senate on deficit concerns: The Hill
White House expected to replace Secretary of State Tillerson: NY Times
Dow Jones Industrials top 24,000 for first time: LA Times
US consumer spending growth slows in Oct as inflation heats up: Bloomberg
Personal income growth for US rises more than expected in Oct: RTT
US jobless claims slip for second week in a row: Reuters
Chicago PMI eases to three-month low in Nov: ISM-Chicago
Is Congress about to cut a tax rate that doesn’t need cutting? Yardeni Research