Daily Archives: November 15, 2017

The Risk Of Estimating Risk

The US stock market has defied the odds this year, or so it appears, by running hotter and staying calmer for longer than expected, based on a variety of risk metrics. It’s unclear if this is due to a failure of the risk metrics, irrational exuberance run amuck, or both.
Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 15 November 2017

Zimbabwe’s military appears to take over government: NY Times
China to send envoy to N. Korea: Bloomberg
Report finds that richest 1% own half the world’s wealth: USA Today
India will lead world’s energy demand growth through 2040: IEA
Senate committee reviews Trump’s authority to use nuclear weapons: ABC
Wholesale inflation in US for Oct posts biggest rise in over 5 years: Reuters
US small business optimism near record high in October: CNBC
Japan’s Q3 GDP rises 0.3%–longest growth run since 2001: Nikkei
The US labor-force participation rate has been sliding for 17 years: Philly Fed