The recent run of soft economic data inspires some pundits to claim that a new recession is brewing. They could be right, but they could just as easily be wrong. Although some numbers published to date have been weaker than expected, a broad profile of economic activity still reflects low recession risk. Near-term projections tell a similar story. From a probability standpoint, betting that a recession has started or is about to start still stacks up as a long shot.
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