Monthly Archives: May 2017

Book Bits | 20 May 2017

Who Stole Our Market Economy?: The Desperate Need For Socioeconomic Progress
By A. Coskun Samli
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan)
This book discusses the current landscape of our market economy, which is in the hands of financiers and billionaires who decrease competition as well as consumer power. In order for society to fully thrive and provide its members higher living standards and quality of life, it must distribute and deliver the fruits of the economic activity without discrimination and favoritism. This book exposes the real problem of economic inequality, poverty, and the elimination of the middle class and argues for a progressive market economy in the face of regressive conservatism. The author warns of business failures, rigid and unrealistic laws, widespread unemployment, and class warfare without a fair, functional system.
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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 May 2017

Political uncertainty for the US is on the rise, but economic risk remains low. The turmoil surrounding President Donald Trump raises questions about the viability of his administration’s pro-growth policy agenda. Nonetheless, it’s debatable if the economy is vulnerable due to elevated political risk, in part because there’s no sign of macro stress based on the numbers published to date.
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Mr. Market Demands A Bigger Discount For Political Risk

Political turmoil swirling around President Trump reached critical mass on Wednesday, triggering a selloff in the US stock market. One concern is that the administration’s pro-growth policy proposals are vulnerable if the White House is forced to address the chaos, much of it self-inflicted, that threatens to overwhelm Washington.
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Mixed Messages In Treasury Market For Rate Outlook

Judging by futures prices, the market’s expecting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again at next month’s monetary policy meeting. That’s also the implied outlook in the 2-year yield (considered to be the most-sensitive spot on the yield curve for rate expectations), which is close to a post-recession high. But the Treasury market’s softer inflation forecasts still leave room for debate about what comes next.
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Book Bits | 13 May 2017

Cents and Sensibility: What Economics Can Learn from the Humanities
By Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
Economists often act as if their methods explain all human behavior. But in Cents and Sensibility, an eminent literary critic and a leading economist make the case that the humanities, especially the study of literature, offer economists ways to make their models more realistic, their predictions more accurate, and their policies more effective and just. Gary Saul Morson and Morton Schapiro trace the connection between Adam Smith’s great classic, The Wealth of Nations, and his less celebrated book on The Theory of Moral Sentiments, and contend that a few decades later Jane Austen invented her groundbreaking method of novelistic narration in order to give life to the empathy that Smith believed essential to humanity.

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Stock Market Volatility and Recessions: A Primer

The unusually low level of stock market volatility has drawn widespread attention recently as the crowd tries to decipher what it means for equity investing and the economy. One of the interpretations is that low vol is a sign that recession risk is low. That’s true, at least at the moment. But the historical connection between market volatility and the business cycle is too unstable for drawing general lessons about recession risk. In other words, it’s dangerous to assume from volatility alone that the near-term outlook for the US economy is rosy. The opposite is true too: a spike in vol by itself doesn’t always signal a new recession.
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Cleaning Out The Factor Zoo

The explosion of financial research in recent years has uncovered an expanding assortment of alpha-generating possibilities that presumably offer a shortcut for enhancing returns over and above a market index. But as a growing list of studies reminds, you can drive a bus through the gap between the reported laundry list of factors and those that pass the smell test.
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