If you’re looking for an optimistic forecast for the government’s first-quarter GDP report that’s due next month, the New York Fed’s model is just the ticket. The bank is currently projecting that US output will expand 3.0% in Q1 (as of Mar. 24), sharply up from Q4’s 1.9% increase. But optimism is an outlier these days. Projections from other sources suggest that Q1 growth will remain more or less unchanged from the sluggish pace in last year’s final quarter.
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