Last week we looked at a short list of the memorable titles that appeared in The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits column this year. Here’s Part II of 2016’s year-end recap of books that deserve a second look.
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This week’s year-end momentum profile of the major asset classes concludes today with a review of REITs/real estate, which follows updates on stocks, bonds, and commodities. The analytical lens is a two-part focus: 50- and 200-day moving averages, augmented with trailing one-year return (252 trading days). The goal: develop intuition about the near-term outlook for various slices of the global markets, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Since the agenda is analyzing price trends (as of Dec. 29), we’ll strip out distributions and look at price-only data, using charting resources via StockCharts.com.
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On Tuesday we looked at stocks, followed by yesterday’s review of bonds. Today we turn to commodities for this series of articles that’s focused on profiling momentum across the major asset classes, according to a set of proxy ETFs.
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Yesterday we reviewed the outlook for stocks based on a momentum profile from the vantage of the major asset classes, according to a set of proxy ETFs. Today’s focus turns to bonds around the world, using prices as of Dec. 27. Once again, the analytical lens is a two-part toolkit: 50- and 200-day moving averages, supplemented with a trailing one-year return (252 trading days). The goal: develop some intuition about the near-term outlook for various slices of the global markets. Since the agenda is analyzing price trends, we’ll strip out distributions and look at price-only data, using charting resources via StockCharts.com.
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With only a few days left to 2016, ‘tis the season of the year-ahead outlook. It’s a tradition freighted with baggage, but there’s something about a calendrical denouement that inspires crystal-ball gazing. In short, everyone has a view about what’s in store for 2017. Some of the predictions could be right, although the historical record suggests that most will be wrong. The bigger challenge is figuring out, in advance, where accuracy lies… or doesn’t. With that caveat out of the way, let’s throw one more forecast into the mix by way of Mr. Market’s implied estimate for near-term price trends via momentum.
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Most markets around the world posted gains for the trading week leading up to the Christmas holiday, with emerging-market bonds taking the top spot among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. The generally positive performances for the week through Dec. 23 repaired some of the damage from the Dec. 12-16 rout that dispensed across-the-board losses.
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Good cheer, great hope, and a Merry Christmas to all!

It’s been another incredible year for new books in finance and economics. Before 2016 slips away, let’s revisit  some of the memorable titles that have appeared in The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column over the past 12 months. Here are five from the archives that, for one reason or another, inspire a second look. Next week, in Part II, I’ll highlight another five titles that arrived this year.
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It was a sure thing, a done deal, a safe bet. Or so we were told. But certainty that the UK would slide into a recession after voting in June to leave the European Union has, so far, turned out to be one more botched recession forecast. But all’s not lost since the erroneous prediction offers another teachable moment for reviewing best practices for analyzing the business cycle.
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The dark art/science of modeling the future has a shady reputation generally, and rightly so. But while extreme caution is always recommended when trafficking in prognostication, it’s a necessary evil to some extent. But some versions of this sorcery are a lesser evil than others. The best of the bunch is arguably combination forecasting, as decades of research advise. Let’s test the recommendation and see if the results hold up.
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