When’s the last time a Nobel Prize-winning economist unwittingly made a convincing case for separating one’s political views from analyzing the business cycle and instead favoring a quantitative-based framework for estimating recession risk? Last week, actually, when Paul Krugman, in the space of two days, veered from predicting a global recession to withdrawing the warning in what might be labeled a “nevermind” moment a la Emily Litella.
Continue reading →