Media chatter about economic recessions tends to come in three flavors. One is the rarely seen diligent species that considers how the macro trend is evolving currently, and may evolve over the next month or so, based on a diversified set of metrics. Then there’s the long-run forecast that makes a valiant effort to divine the future a year or more in advance. The third alternative, which is by far the most popular flavor, is to zero in on one or two indicators, usually as a prelude to declaring that the end is nigh… any day now. But only one of the three is relatively reliable while the other two can safely be labeled as lighted-hearted diversions bordering on entertainment.
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