Softer-than-expected data continues to weigh on the August economic profile for the US. Retail sales slumped last month as did industrial output; translating the numbers into year-over-year changes reveals a downside bias. Initial jobless claims remain a bright spot, although the August payrolls report that was published earlier in the month posted a sharp deceleration in growth. Although the macro trend for the US is still on track to remain positive, recent numbers raise the possibility that growth will remain sluggish. As a result, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Continue reading →