US economic growth remains sluggish, as last week’s disappointing Q2 GDP report shows, but you can’t blame the weak macro trend on consumers. Personal consumption expenditures continued to increase at a modest rate in June, rising 0.4% for the second month in a row, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. The gain pushed the annual pace up to 3.7%, close to the strongest year-over-year advance in nearly a year. There are any number of challenges weighing on the economy, but weak spending on Main Street isn’t one of them.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index rebounded in July, rising to a 14-month high. GMI—an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes—is expected to earn an annualized 3.8% risk premium over the long term, moderately above last month’s estimate. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.)
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