US private-sector payrolls increased by a moderate 177,000 in August, according to the ADP Employment Report. Although the increase is below July’s upwardly revised increase of 194,000, the expansion is strong enough to support the view that the US economy is still on track to post stronger growth in the third quarter and repair some of the damage from the weakness in this year’s first half.
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Consumer confidence bounced to its highest level in nearly a year, according to yesterday’s update from the Conference Board. Boosted by optimism on the outlook for the labor market, the index follows news on Monday that year-over-year private-sector wage growth in July strengthened for the second month in a row, rising 4.3%–the fastest annual pace since January.
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Yesterday’s upbeat report on consumer spending and income in the US provides fresh support for last week’s moderately hawkish comments from Fed officials, who hinted that another interest-rate hike is near, perhaps as early as next month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Yet support for pricing in a new round of policy tightening is modest at best via Treasury yields. Is that because job growth is expected to slow in this Friday’s employment report for July after two months of strong increases?
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Investment gains were missing in action last week for all the major asset classes, based on a set of broadly defined proxy ETFs. The best performer only managed to hold steady for the five trading days through Aug. 28, with the rest of the field posting varying degrees of loss.
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● Missed Information: Better Information for Building a Wealthier, More Sustainable Future
By David Sarokin and Jay Schulkin
Summary via publisher (MIT Press)
Information is power. It drives commerce, protects nations, and forms the backbone of systems that range from health care to high finance. Yet despite the avalanche of data available in today’s information age, neither institutions nor individuals get the information they truly need to make well-informed decisions. Faulty information and sub-optimal decision-making create an imbalance of power that is exaggerated as governments and corporations amass enormous databases on each of us. Who has more power: the government, in possession of uncounted terabytes of data (some of it obtained by cybersnooping), or the ordinary citizen, trying to get in touch with a government agency? In Missed Information, David Sarokin and Jay Schulkin explore information—not information technology, but information itself—as a central part of our lives and institutions. They show that providing better information and better access to it improves the quality of our decisions and makes for a more vibrant participatory society.
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Do Stock Market Trading Activities Forecast Recessions?
Ujjal Chatterjee (U. of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, American University of Sharjah)
August 9, 2016
This paper re-examines the existing recession forecasting models with stock market liquidity as an additional forecasting variable. We investigate three distinct aspects of stock market trading activities, namely stock market liquidity, returns and volatility as predictors of U.S. recessions. We also conduct a horse race comparison in the recession forecasting power between various stock market liquidity measures. We show that i) lower stock market liquidity signals recessions; ii) stock market liquidity and returns forecasts recessions up to three into the future, while stock market volatility has no forecasting power; iii) stock market liquidity as computed by stock transaction costs and by stock price changes to trading volume forecast recessions better than other measures in the literature; iv) stock market liquidity-based models outperform the survey of professional forecasters’ estimates of recession probabilities, and hence the results suggest that professional forecasters may need to incorporate stock market liquidity in their forecasts. The results have potential preemptive monetary policy implications.
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US economic growth continues to rebound after a soft patch in the first half of the year. Supported by stronger job growth in June and July, the firmer trend in the actual data follows projections published by The US Business Cycle Risk Report and The Capital Spectator in previous months for a revival in the pace of the expansion (see the bottom charts here and here, for example). The recovery is expected to strengthen in the months ahead, as summarized in today’s update, as shown in the last chart at the bottom of this post.
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Economic output in the US is on track to rebound sharply in the third quarter, according to several estimates. Some analysts are looking for growth in excess of 3% when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the “advance” Q3 report on Oct. 28. Even the cautious forecasts are generally anticipating a solid bounce of 2%-plus, which represents a healthy improvement over Q2’s sluggish 1.2% increase (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
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Fed fund futures continue to imply a low probability of a rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting, but the annual trend in real (inflation-adjusted) base money supply points to a slightly firmer bias for anticipating another round of monetary policy tightening in the near-term future.
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US economic growth strengthened for the second month in a row in July, according to this morning’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading ticked up to -0.10, the highest level since February. Today’s update effectively confirms that the recession risk remained low last month.
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