No one would characterize GDP forecasting as easy. Some might call it worthless. But to the extent that we crunch these numbers, it’s useful to note that there are many ways to slice and dice. Not surprisingly, results vary–sometimes by a lot. Among the various knives in this drawer is one with the potential to minimize the noise via modeling GDP changes on a year-over-year basis. It’s flawed, of course, like every other effort at divining the future. But the underlying methodology has a certain appeal, as I’ll discuss. And maybe, just maybe, its flaws are less egregious vs. the usual suspects that attract so much attention in the GDP prediction game.
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Monthly Archives: June 2016
Initial Guidance | 14 June 2016
Broadly Defined Commodities Rise For Fifth Straight Week
The rebound in commodities rolled on last week, delivering the biggest return for the five trading days through June 10 among the major asset classes, based on a set of exchanged-traded products. For the fifth consecutive week, the iPath Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) posted a gain, rising 2.3%.
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Initial Guidance | 13 June 2016
Book Bits |11 June 2016
● The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future
By Kevin Kelly
Review via TechDirt
Kevin Kelly, whose bio always notes that he “helped launch Wired Magazine,” is one of those people who always makes you think. I enjoy his writing and insights into technology more than just about anyone else. So it’s exciting to see his new book out, entitled The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future. This isn’t a book about making specific predictions about this or that technology, but rather an attempt to look at specific larger trends that Kelly believes are “inevitable.” From there, you can start to think about what it would mean for technology, life, work and much, much more.
For anyone interested in the things we talk about here: the intersection of technology, economics, business and policy, I’d put this one on the must read list.
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Utilities Continue To Lead Among US Equity Sectors
Utility stocks still hold the top-spot among US sectors for the trailing one-year return slot, based on a set of proxy ETFs. As horse races go, there’s nothing subtle here. This interest-rate sensitive slice of the stock market enjoys a sizable—and expanding—performance lead over the rest of the field.
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Initial Guidance | 10 June 2016
US Equity Market Optimism Vs. The Risk-Off Trade In Treasuries
Is the US stock market inspired by expectations that the Fed will delay interest rate hikes? Or perhaps the crowd anticipates that economic growth will chug along at a healthy rate, despite last week’s news that employment suffered a sharp slowdown in May. Maybe both factors are in play. Whatever the source of the renewed optimism that’s driving equities higher, the revival of animal spirits in the stock market conflicts with the ongoing and arguably firmer appetite for the risk-off trade in Treasuries.
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Initial Guidance | 9 June 2016
Was That A Bear Market For US Stocks? Is It Over?
The S&P 500 inched higher again yesterday (June 7), closing at at 2112.13–the highest level since last July. The all-time high— 2130.82 on May 21, 2015—is now within shouting distance. The latest upside momentum gives the bulls fresh confidence for arguing that the bear market is over—or perhaps there was never a bear-market in the first place. In any case, the stock market has mounted an impressive rally since the February bottom and for the moment the upside bias remains intact.
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