New filings for unemployment benefits in the US increased 13,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 277,000, the Labor Dept. reports. That’s still a low number in historical terms and taken at face value the latest report implies that the labor market will continue to expand. But today’s release reveals a worrisome return of year-over-year gains in the data—for both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures. It could be noise, but the pattern of late is hinting at the possibility that the tide may be turning for this leading indicator.
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Daily Archives: June 16, 2016
The 10-Year Yield Ticks Lower As Fed Delays Rate Hike
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased yesterday (June 15) to 1.60%–the lowest since late 2012, based on daily data via Treasury.gov. The downtick follows yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to delay another rate hike. Why? The economy’s too weak to sustain another round of policy tightening, at least for the moment. As a result, the benchmark Treasury yield is closing in on its all-time low in July 2012 of just above 1.40%. Will we see a new record low at some point in the near future? No one knows, of course, but it’s premature to discount the possibility. In other words, the multi-decade bull market for bonds isn’t quite dead after all.
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