Survey data published by Markit Economics this week anticipates a weak US economic profile for May. Today’s flash estimate of the Services PMI for this month dipped modestly to 51.2, or just slightly above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The news follows Monday’s preliminary May numbers for the US Manufacturing PMI in May, which is close to a stagnant reading of 50.5. Taken together, the two updates suggest that economic activity decelerated in May.
Continue reading →

The US stock market rebounded sharply yesterday, dispensing the biggest daily gain in two months. But the latest surge doesn’t change much for the trailing 10-year return, which remains well below its median for the rolling decade-long changes posted over the last 50 years. That may or may not be relevant for developing intuition about future performance, but it’s a reminder that the recovery in the US stock market in recent years still pales relative to previous boom in the 1980s and 1990s.
Continue reading →

● US New-Home Sales Jump to Highest Level in Over 8 Years | NY Times
● Richmond Fed: Manufacturing activity slowed in May | Richmond Fed
● Americans’ confidence in the US economy remains steady in mid-May | Gallup
● ECB’s Villeroy: Brexit Risks High for UK and Eurozone | MNI
● China’s currency fixing weakens against US$ to 5yr low | Bloomberg
● The Longer the Correction, the Longer the Bounce Back | WSJ
● German consumer morale inches higher heading into June | Reuters