Economists are projecting growth for the monthly comparisons in tomorrow’s April updates on residential housing construction and industrial output in the US. But while the consensus forecasts are calling for an encouraging start for the second-quarter data, the implied one-year changes are still on track to stay negative.
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The Bank of England’s governor on Friday warned that Britain risked an economic recession if citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU) in next month’s referendum. “In that scenario we would expect a material slowing in growth, a notable rise in inflation, a challenging trade-off,” Mark Carney predicted at a news conference. Prudent advice from a sober-minded central banker? Or, as critics charge, a misguided effort to sway a democratic debate by pushing an institution that should remain above the fray into the political arena?
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Broadly defined commodities bounced higher last week, topping the performance list for the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. iPath Bloomberg Commodity (DFP) increased 1.4% for the five trading days through May 13, delivering a relatively outsized gain vs. the rest of the field.
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● US Retail sales up 1.3% in Apr, biggest gain in a year | MarketWatch
● US Consumer Sentiment Index In May At 1yr High | Bloomberg
● US Business Inventories Rise More Than Expected In Mar | RTT
● GDPNow Q2 growth estimate for US jumps to +2.8% | Atlanta Fed
● NY Fed nowcast for US GDP growth in Q2: +1.2% | NY Fed
● China Ind Prod, Retail Sales Up Less Than Expected in Apr | RTT
● Yes, the IMF and 200-plus economists can be wrong | R. Bootle (Telegraph)