US retail sales are expected to rebound in tomorrow’s April report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction reflects a 0.6% increase vs. the previous month’s spending total.
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New filings for unemployment benefits in the US soared last week, delivering a sharp rebuke to the consensus forecast, which was looking for a modest decline. Instead, economists were blindsided as jobless claims surged 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week through May 7, the Labor Department reports. The government advises that no “special factors” influenced today’s release, which marks the biggest weekly rise for the seasonally adjusted data in two years. But the numbers could be skewed by a Verizon strike in New York state and so the bearish report may be less threatening than it appears on first glance.
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AQR Capital Management’s Cliff Asness has launched a healthy discussion about the trials and tribulations of factor timing with a new essay (“The Siren Song of Factor Timing”). He’s recommends that investors steer clear, which is good advice because the crowd’s record, in the aggregate, to successfully engage in market-timing activities generally is overwhelmingly poor. But Asness isn’t an absolutist. Instead, he notes that sometimes the perceived opportunities for engaging in a bit of timing are just too compelling to pass up.
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● US mortgage applications up just 0.4%, despite rates near 3-yr lows | CNBC
● US Budget Deficit Expanded in April | WSJ
● UK’s looming ‘Brexit’ vote is causing global shivers | USA Today
● The Fed Made the Poor Poorer via tight policy | Narayana Kocherlakota (Bbg)
● Gold Fund Buying Frenzy Spurs Demand to 2nd-Highest Ever | Bloomberg
● Majority of Brazil’s Senate to vote for Rousseff impeachment | Reuters