Yesterday’s April update of the Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) points to a sluggish rebound for the US economy in the second quarter after flirting with stall-speed GDP growth in Q1. Although LMCI ticked up last month, this multi-factor benchmark posted its fourth consecutive negative reading—the longest stretch of below-zero values since the last recession. That’s not encouraging, but for the moment the main risk is slow growth rather than a new downturn that triggers an NBER-defined slide into recession.
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● Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index for April Stays Negative | St Louis Fed
● US Employment Trend Index: lower growth expected | Conference Board
● US Workers Regain Faith in Finding Good Job if Laid Off | Gallup
● Japan Q1 GDP Seen Showing Flat Growth After Q4 Slump | MNI
● Are business cycles random events? | Marginal Revolution
● Hedge Funds Faced Choppy Waters in 2015, but Chiefs Cashed In | NY Times
● China’s Consumer Inflation Continued Firming Trend in Apr | Bloomberg