Employment growth at US companies slowed in April to the weakest gain in three years, according to this morning’s update from ADP. The private sector added only 156,000 positions to payrolls last month in seasonally adjusted terms—well below expectations for a gain of nearly 200,000. Today’s data raises new questions about expectations for a second-quarter rebound in economic activity following the weak Q1 GDP report. The numbers du jour also revive the focus on a question I asked last week: Will Job Growth Kill The Bear-Market Signal For Stocks?
Continue reading →

Vanguard founder John Bogle gave a powerful speech last month at the Q Group’s Spring Seminar that lays out the case (again) for favoring basic indexing and shunning complexity in matters of portfolio design and management. As Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler points out, Bogle wields the weapon of “basic math” with devastating effect on the expectations of investment managers who aspire to rocket science in the pursuit of performance glory. Anyone who’s familiar with Bogle’s long-running advice to keep it simple and favor plain-vanilla index funds will find the usual red meat here. Nonetheless, the latest sermon from one of index investing’s founding fathers makes for awkward reading for those inclined to challenge the great man. As a sample, consider the following excerpts from last month’s oration on “David and Goliath: Who Wins The Quantitative Battle?”:
Continue reading →

● US auto sales recover in April | MarketWatch
● Redbook: US retail sales growth edges lower in last week of Apr | TradingEco
● European Commission trims growth forecast | IBT
● Revised PMI Composite for Eurozone signals slow growth in Apr | Markit
● Global mfg remains in slow growth gear during April | Markit
● Atlanta Fed President encouraged by employment data | MNI
● Trump Becomes Presumptive Rep Nominee as Cruz Exits Race | Bloomberg
● How Slow Growth Could Thwart a Clinton Presidency | Fiscal Times