What a difference a month makes for anticipating Thursday’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter. In late-March economists were projecting US growth at 1.5%-plus, perhaps even in the low-2% range by some accounts (seasonally adjusted annual rate). But expectations have fallen on hard times in recent weeks and the government’s preliminary estimate of economic output in Q1 has been cut to as low as 0.1% by one firm’s reckoning. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast of 0.7% is firmer, but this estimate still represents a sharp deceleration from the already sluggish 1.4% pace in last year’s Q4.
Continue reading →

● US New-home sales slip in March, after prior months revised up | MarketWatch
● Dallas Fed mfg index falls more than forecast in Apr | Business Insider
● Fed to Keep Options Open for June Rate Hike | Bloomberg
● Nearly Two-Thirds of Americans Prefer Saving to Spending | Gallup
● The Fed’s Inflation Fail | Narayana Kocherlakota (Bloomberg)