The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to tick higher in tomorrow’s March update, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection for -0.02 reflects a slight improvement over the previous month. The forecast for March anticipates that US economic activity is running slightly below the historical trend rate of growth.
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Recent economic updates reveal that US growth has slowed in the first quarter, but the deceleration wasn’t sharp enough to trigger a recession, based on a broad set of numbers published through March. Estimates for first-quarter GDP suggest otherwise, but the evidence is still weak for arguing that a new downturn started last month when reviewing the data across multiple indicators from a bottom-up perspective.
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There’s no chance that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike at its monetary meeting next week, according to the Fed funds futures market. The implied probability that the central bank will lift the current 0.25%-to-0.50% range at the Apr. 27 FOMC confab is effectively nil via CME data (as of Apr. 19). It’s another story, however, when we look at the year-over-year change in the real (inflation-adjusted) monetary base (M0). By this measure, the central bank’s shift to a policy tightening stance continued in March.
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● US housing data adds to signs of weak Q1 GDP growth | Reuters
● GDPnow estimate for US growth in Q1 unchanged at +0.3 | Atlanta Fed
● NY Fed nowcast of Q1 GDP growth for US: +0.8% | NY Fed
● Redbook: US retail sales +0.8% mtd vs. year-ago level | MNI
● US Economic Confidence Index Stable at -12 | Gallup
● Worldwide Oil Production Outages Bump Up Oil Prices | Oilprice.com