Daily Archives: April 15, 2016

US Industrial Output Continued To Slide In March

Manufacturing output in the US contracted for the second straight month in March, according to this morning’s update from the Federal Reserve. The slide weighed on the broader measure of industrial production, which slumped a hefty 0.6% last month. The decline pushed the year-over-year trend for industrial activity deeper into the red. The news raises doubts about the nascent signs of a manufacturing turnaround via the sentiment data.
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Should We Try To Predict The Next Recession? Fuhgettaboutit!

Scott Sumner warns that predicting the next recession is a mug’s game. The dismal record on forecasting certainly offers support. “Whenever I hear that someone has accurately predicted a recession, my evaluation of that person declines,” writes the economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. “Economists should not be trying to predict recessions; the point is to prevent them.” Success with the latter may be even more challenging than the former, but that’s an issue for another day. Meantime, Sumner notes that “recession predictions have a corrosive effect on economics as a science.” Why? Because “these predictions lead non-economists to believe that economists should predict recessions, and give undeserved reputational points to lucky permabears.”
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Initial Guidance | 15 April 2016

● US Core Consumer Prices in Mar Cool in Sign Pickup Transitory | Bloomberg
● US Jobless Claims Decline as Labor Market Remains Hearty | WSJ
● Consumer Comfort Index in US Rose For First Time In A Month | Bloomberg
● Most Americans in 15 Years Say Their Tax Bill Is Too High | Gallup
● China Growth Slows Slightly In Q1 Amid Signs Of Stabilization | RTT
● Japan earthquake kills nine; more aftershocks expected | CNN