The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in March—the first increase in five months. GMI—an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes—is projected to earn an annualized 3.0% over the “risk free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.) Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through March, is slightly above last month’s projection.
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The crowd was in a buying mood last week, with most of the world’s markets posting gains, based on a set of proxy ETFs for the major asset classes. The main exception: commodities overall, which slipped back into a familiar bearish pattern. Otherwise, the trading week through Apr. 1 dispensed returns far and wide.
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● US payrolls rise 215,000 in March as wages pick up | Bloomberg
● US ISM mfg index in March points to first expansion in 6 months | MarketWatch
● US Consumer Sentiment Slips in March to 5-Month Low | AP
● PMI: Slow global mfg growth ticked up in March | Markit
● Trump’s prediction of ‘massive recession’ puzzles economists | Reuters
● What are the chances of a recession? Not what you’d think | Barry Ritholtz